Alberta's population boom is slowing but still outpacing the rest of Canada

After Alberta's population boomed through the first half of 2024, its growth slowed during the third quarter of this year.

But even while less people answered Alberta's call, the province's population is still growing more quickly than the rest of Canada.

As of Oct. 1, Statistics Canada recorded Alberta's population to be 4,931,601. That's roughly 43,000 more, or a 0.9 per cent increase, from the 4,888,723 recorded three months earlier. The pace of growth remains higher than the national rate, and tops any other province or territory.

The total was also roughly 3.9 per cent more than on the same date one year earlier, and close to double the national population increase of 2.3 per cent in the same span.

What's still setting Alberta apart from other provinces, to see a population uptick, has been the level of interprovincial migration it's still seeing.

"It's the interprovincial (migration) that's driving a wedge between Alberta's population growth and the rest of country. So this is why our population is growing 3.9 per cent," ATB economist Mark Parsons said.

Last quarter, Alberta welcomed 10,810 more people to the province than it saw leave for other parts of the country, a far higher rate than any other part of Canada.

Calgary has felt the brunt of Alberta's population growth this year, but Parsons said ATB is seeing signs its growth will be more balanced across the province in 2025.

And while Canada's reduced international immigration targets should lower the overall population growth of Alberta next year, Parsons said he still predicts Alberta's population to increase just under two per cent in 2025. The rate is a marked slowdown but still set to be higher than the rest of Canada.

Parsons also forecasted slower population growth should benefit Alberta's unemployment rate, with less people moving to Alberta who are seeking work. But Parsons said ATB is still forecasting a seven per cent unemployment rate in 2025.

Unlike past interprovincial population waves in Alberta that were driven by employment in the energy sector, it's Alberta's relative housing affordability that's been driving movement from other provinces in recent years, Parsons says.

In particular, that number has been driven up by British Columbia and Ontario, the two provinces with the highest-priced housing markets.

Statistics Canada estimates 7,719 people moved to Alberta from Ontario in Q3 this year, while 7,693 moved from B.C. Each province accounted for roughly a third of the 22,732 who moved to Alberta from another province or territory. Parsons noted there's still more room to grow from there, even if it's slowing down.

"There's still quite a bit of runway, especially compared to places like Toronto and Vancouver," Parsons said.