After early heat, experts say Prairies to face climate challenges in season ahead

2023 has offered a strange mix of weather so far, from winter weather that continued well into spring, to a spring that has felt more like summer, triggering forest fires and air quality advisories.

So how will the rest of spring and summer shape up in terms of weather in the Prairies, and how will that impact our climate? While some switching weather patterns make this hard to predict, experts are anticipating water supply challenges, fires and drought.

Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), says the Prairies are shifting out of a La Niña pattern — where colder Pacific Ocean temperatures prolong cold, winter air and bring late-season snow events. 

It's the third winter in a row this pattern has occurred, and only the third time since 1950 that we've seen a "triple dip" La Niña event, Lang said.

Warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures mean we're now shifting into an El Niño pattern. This usually means milder and drier winters on the Prairies.

WATCH | A rare 'triple-dip' La Nina could mean a wild winter:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niño watch, and says it could develop between now and July, but Lang says it's more likely to fully develop by the fall.

The transition period, Lang said, doesn't usually have a noticeable temperature or precipitation pattern, making long-term forecasting challenging.

"With April, we kind of had a little bit of a hangover from La Niña," said Lang.

"There was still some colder air sitting off the coast of British Columbia. But all of a sudden somebody switched a switch on and we went almost immediately into hot, dry weather."

ECCC's three month outlook shows May, June and July are expected to be warmer than normal in much of Canada. Portions of northern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have a 70 to 90 per cent chance of seeing above normal temperatures.

Precipitation is much harder to predict, said Lang, with ECCC's outlook not showing a noticeable trend.

Lang said forecasters think this El Niño event could be more powerful than others.

"Just now because we have ... that contribution of climate change," said Lang. "We're starting to see temperatures rise globally and what does that mean for an El Niño event ... that's sort of in question right now."