A federal Liberal sweep on P.E.I. is a familiar result, but Conservatives made some big gains

All four of Prince Edward Island's ridings staying Liberal red on a federal election night is not an unusual result, but this time it wasn't a guaranteed result by any means. 

The Liberal Party of Canada's three Island incumbents, plus one rookie candidate, eventually won seats on Parliament Hill when all the votes were counted Monday night and early Tuesday. 

In what ended up being a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservative Party of Canada, a trend that was largely reflected across the country, the blue brand did appear to make some significant gains over the previous election in 2023. 

"The popular vote for the Liberal Party is certainly impressive, but it's not so far ahead of the CPC," said Don Desserud, a political science professor at UPEI. "The bigger story… is the strength of the Conservative vote, which is an odd thing to say because it wasn't that long ago that we were looking at a Conservative landslide." 

By 1:30 a.m. AT Tuesday, the Liberals had racked up about 58 per cent of the popular vote on P.E.I., compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives. Nationally at the same time, the Liberals had 42.8 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives had 41.8 per cent. 

With polls still being reported across the country early Tuesday, the CBC Decision Desk was projecting that Mark Carney's Liberals would form the next government, though it remained to be seen whether it would be a majority or minority. 

As Desserud remarked, that kind of Liberal victory would have seemed almost impossible just a few months ago.  

Canadians had soured on former prime minister Justin Trudeau and poll after poll suggested Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would snap up the majority government he'd long been waiting for.

Then came Trudeau's resignation in early January, newly re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war against his country's traditional allies, and persistent barbs about making Canada the 51st state — flipping the political script.

With Trump announcing, pausing, then re-announcing devastating tariffs on Canadian goods, the campaign largely became a race about who could best steer Canada through global uncertainty. And at the end of the day, Canadians cast ballots in favour of Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. 

Still, the prospect of two-horse races did provide some drama on P.E.I., particularly in our westernmost riding.

The Egmont riding's incumbent Liberal, Bobby Morrissey, and Conservative candidate Logan McLellan were within 100 votes of each other for most of the first hour of results coming in from Elections Canada.

McLellan even held a slim lead at one point, and the men were tied at another, but Morrissey finally pulled ahead to win by almost 2,000 votes. 

Desserud was particularly surprised by how tight that race was, given Egmont was the only riding where the Conservatives did not run a former provincial Progressive Conservative cabinet minister. McLellan is a business owner born and raised in Summerside.