With Covid cases declining, is worst of second wave over? Here’s what latest data suggests

Average weekly fresh cases of Covid-19 and test positivity rates are declining in most states in India since an extended period of lockdown in parts of the country has helped contain transmission.

As the overall numbers suggest, the pandemic might be slowing down in Delhi, with the capital now reporting a fifth of new cases that it used to report during the peak of the second Covid wave. Several other data points indicate the same. For example, Delhi's R-value of 0.57 is closer to December 2020 levels. It touched 2.3 in mid-April, meaning one Covid-positive person could in turn infect over two people, but has been falling since. Other indicators such as positivity rate (number of people testing positive out of total persons tested) and the number of new cases too, suggest that the worst is perhaps over in Delhi, at least for the time being. At the national level as well, there has been a substantial drop in average weekly fresh cases. The active caseload came down to around one lakh on May 16 and 1.6 lakh a day later. Test positivity rates have dropped in most states and R-value is down to 0.9.