Will the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip hold? | Explained Premium

Israel and Hamas accept ceasefire in Gaza after 15 months of fighting, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S.

The story so far: After 15 months of fighting, which was triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack in which about 1,200 people were killed, Israel and Hamas have accepted a ceasefire in Gaza. On Saturday, Israel’s 24-member cabinet gave approval to the agreement, which is expected to be implemented in three phases. The deal, which came into force on Sunday, was reached in talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. If it holds, it would provide a desperately needed relief for Gaza, the tiny strip along the Mediterranean Sea which was relentlessly bombed by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) over the past 15 months in which over 46,000 Palestinians were killed and almost the entire population of the enclave displaced.

The deal is to be implemented in three phases. In the 42-day first phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages, most of those alive, and Israel will free roughly 1,000 Palestinian security prisoners. Israel will also partially withdraw the IDF from Gaza, and allow the entry of about 600 trucks of humanitarian aid into the enclave every day. The IDF is expected to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, which separates northern Gaza, which has seen massive Israeli bombardment from Day one of the war, from the south, where most of the enclave’s population have been pushed into. If the Israeli troops withdraw from Netzarim, it would allow some of the displaced Gazans to move from the south and centre to the north.

But in the first phase, Israeli troops will remain in the Philadelphi Corridor on the Rafah crossing — which means Israel will continue to monitor Gaza’s border with Egypt. On the 16th day of the first phase, discussions are expected to begin on the second phase. If the first phase is implemented as per plan, 65 hostages will still be in Hamas’s captivity and Israeli troops will still be there at Philadelphi and some buffer zones in Gaza. In the second stage, Hamas will be required to release most of the remaining living hostages and both sides should declare a permanent end to the hostilities. The third phase will involve discussions on the ‘day after’.

The deal accepted by both parties is not essentially different from the deal offered eight months ago. Hamas had announced earlier that it would accept a deal, provided the war is brought to a permanent end.

In May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the agreement, saying Israel would continue its military offensive in Gaza until it meets its objectives.

But a lot has changed in the region since.

Israel now believes its regional standing has become stronger. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia organisation, has lost most of its top leadership in Israeli attacks. The IDF has killed most of the leaders of Hamas, including Yahya Sinwar. Israel carried out a massive air strike in Iran in October, targeting the Islamic Republic’s air defences and other military facilities (to which Iran hasn’t responded yet). More importantly, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has further weakened Iran’s so-called ‘axis of resistance’ in West Asia. Mr. Assad’s Syria was the land bridge between Iran and Hezbollah. Since this land bridge is disrupted, Hezbollah will find it difficult to rearm itself. These developments have also strengthened Mr. Netanyahu’s political standing at home.