Will he or won't he? Signs that Ford may call an early Ontario election stack up

Inside Ontario's legislature, the halls are decked, the sounds of children's choirs singing Christmas carols waft down the corridors, and in the air there's a feeling of an election.

Staff and politicians alike are abuzz with early election speculation, seeing signs big and small stacking up as the legislature prepares for its winter break.

Some see the government's fast-tracking of several bills as an indication it wants to clear the legislative decks before a spring election call. Others point to a year-end deadline Premier Doug Ford has given his Progressive Conservative caucus members to decide if they'll stand for re-election.

Some say the $200 "rebate" cheques the government plans to mail to Ontario households early in the new year are evidence an election will soon follow, while others note that government ad spending is at the highest level ever.

Speculation has been building since Ford repeatedly refused to rule out calling an election earlier than the fixed June 2026 date at a news conference this spring.

All of it has opposition parties and special interest groups reading the tea leaves and ensuring their own election planning is well underway.

"I'm hearing what everybody else is, that there are definitely plans afoot to consider calling the election early," said Liberal campaign co-chair Genevieve Tomney.

"So from my perch, the most important thing that I can do is work with my team to be ready."

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has already made two platform announcements, using "Team Bonnie" in place of "the Ontario Liberal Party" in some of the accompanying materials, and the party is introducing the new leader to voters through an ad campaign. In that case, the pre-election buzz is helpful, Tomney said.

"I always want to make sure that we are using our resources and coming out with a strong message at a time when people are actually prepared to hear it and to do something about it," she said.

"If we were to have launched an ad six months ago, I'm not sure that people would be in the head space to want to really start to explore what the alternative to Doug Ford looks like."

Third parties such as teachers' unions are also taking notice of early election speculation and preparing ad campaigns of their own. They are jointly funding anti-Ford ads under the banner of Ontario Forward, reminiscent of the former Working Families Coalition that spent millions in advertising against the Progressive Conservatives in past elections.

The Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation (OSSTF) is also rolling out its own campaign called Ford High, meant to highlight a litany of problems in schools.

"I don't enter into a conversation these days without somebody saying, 'What do you think about the election?' and 'When is it going to be?' and that people need to be aware and need to be mobilized," said OSSTF president Karen Littlewood.