Will Doug Ford join the federal campaign? Trump's trade war may pull him into the fight

Fresh off his third straight election win, Ontario Premier Doug Ford seems content to watch the fight to form the next federal government from the sidelines — but it's a battle experts say he may not be able to stay out of even if he tries. 

Ford swept back to power nearly a month ago after calling a snap vote in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war. The premier has built up political capital on the file as a vocal opponent of the imposed fees from south of the border, which helped him cement his re-elected majority government.

But while the tariff battle and Trump appear set to become a major ballot box question federally, the Progressive Conservative premier has signalled he's planning to stay out of that battle — something his office confirmed to CBC News.

Asked this week who he'd have a better relationship with, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre or Liberal Leader Mark Carney, Ford wouldn't say.

"I'll work with anyone," he said, but conceded that it's "no secret" that he's developed close relationships with some federal Liberal cabinet ministers, including Chrystia Freeland and Dominic LeBlanc.

"I don't know either one of them, to be very frank," Ford said of Poilievre and Carney.

Conservative strategist Laryssa Waler, a former spokesperson for the premier, said Ford's decision to stay away from the campaign is consistent with his past approach. He intentionally kept out of the limelight during the 2019 and 2021 federal campaigns. 

But things could be different this time around because of Trump's trade war, she added. Even if Ford wants to avoid campaigning, his duties as Ontario's Premier mean he has to speak up on new developments which will inevitability be part of the federal issue set, said Waler, who is founder of Henley Strategies.

"Doug Ford has really kind of earned that Captain Canada persona, he's still going to be in the news doing that," she said. "I think he's going to be very disciplined in the words he uses."

McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe said the frequent musings from Trump on tariffs will also mean that Mark Carney will need to respond as prime minister. So, Ford may find himself literally standing side-by-side with Carney as they fight against the taxes.

"I could imagine that (Ford) will continue to want to be quite involved in whatever politics are related to tariffs," he said. "That will tend to probably bring him closer to Mark Carney over that period."

Trent University political science professor Cristine de Clercy said the volatility in the federal polls, which have shown a close race between the Conservatives and Liberals, might also make it risky for him to get involved. Ford can't afford to alienate anyone who could form government, she added.

"Premiers depend on Ottawa, particularly for its capacity to spend on large ticket items like infrastructure and highways and transportation," she said. "Because of all these things, it's sort of foolish in our system for a premier to get too heavily involved in elections at the federal level or pick deeply personal fights with people in the federal government."

Graefe said that hasn't stopped Ford from campaigning aggressively against the federal carbon tax for years or from taking shots at former prime minister Justin Trudeau over their policy differences. Ford has a history of being a combative partisan at all levels of politics, he said.