Why Quebec could once again tip the balance in this federal election
CBC
At a casse-croûte on Montreal's South Shore, Anne-Marie Pinot settles in for a lunchtime poutine. She has voted for political parties across the spectrum over the years, but this time, she is voting Bloc Québécois.
Pinot is concerned about the threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, but worries Quebec could be forgotten in trade negotiations without a strong local voice. Her 18-year-old daughter, also a Bloc supporter, motivated her to get more involved with the sovereigntist party.
"The idea is to protect the Quebec economy," said Pinot, after snapping a selfie with Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who stopped for a photo-op in the hotly contested riding of Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, where polls suggest the Liberals are in a tight race with Bloc incumbent Denis Trudel.
Pinot's argument reflects what Blanchet has been trying to get across to voters, in what has proven to be a challenging campaign for the sovereigntist party.
The shadow cast by Trump has loomed large in Quebec, where questions of identity and culture have not been as present as in previous campaigns, said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president with the polling firm Leger.
"In the past few electoral cycles, it was easier to run on identity issues. That really gave the Bloc an edge compared to other parties," Dallaire said.
"Without this, as people are talking more generally about the economy, how to defend Canada against the threats coming from the United States, it was much harder for the Bloc to really make its voice heard in that context."
The latest opinion polls show the Liberals could win as many as 45 of the province's 78 seats, with the Bloc a distant second with between 19 and 26, according to CBC's Poll Tracker.
In the 2021 election, the Liberals won 35 seats, compared with 32 for the Bloc.
The tracker suggests the Conservatives could win between 12 and 14, up from 10 in 2021. The NDP is hoping to hold on to its lone seat in Quebec, with Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.
In the final stretch of the campaign, Blanchet has acknowledged the Liberals could form the next government and has tried to make the case that the Bloc needs enough seats to represent Quebec's interests in Ottawa.
"I don't want to be prime minister, but I can offer to be a partner, a responsible partner, a collaborative partner," Blanchet said during the English debate, stressing the need for the next federal government to protect the province's aluminum industry from tariffs, as well as the French language and culture.
"If we are respected, we will be a partner, and then Canada will be stronger in its negotiation with Donald Trump."
The two main parties have also tried to shore up support. Liberal Leader Mark Carney spent a day in Quebec during the last week of the campaign.
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