Why Doug Ford may find there's little to be gained by campaigning for Poilievre

After Doug Ford's significant majority victory in Ontario, one might think Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would be racing to cozy up to the premier for help in winning the crucial battleground province in the federal election.

Poilievre, however, said he hasn't approached the Ontario Progressive Conservative leader for assistance. Ford, meanwhile, indicated he won't be publicly supporting any of the candidates, insisting he will stay out of the campaign to focus on his province.

Ford did stay out of the 2019 and 2021 federal campaigns. But some of his reluctance to campaign for a fellow conservative in this election may be motivated by friction between the two leaders, some analysts say. And it could also be rooted in the perception that the Ontario premier sees little political gain by helping out Poilievre.

"It would be of great benefit to Poilievre. I don't think Ford sees a lot in it for himself," said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University.

Ford doesn't risk being ignored by Poilievre if he were to win, she said. 

"Ontario will always have a seat at the table," Lawlor said. "I think in Ford's case in particular, he's shown that he'll work with anyone who has the same policy objectives. And I think right now, they're as much aligned with [Liberal Leader Mark] Carney as they would be with Poilievre."

Ontario, with its 122 seats, will again be the key to electoral victory. It would seem then to be in the interest of Ford to help a fellow conservative like Poilievre secure victory. And, that it would be in the interest of Poilievre to make a significant effort to get Ford's support.

"Why would you not hitch your wagon to to Doug Ford?" said Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph.

Yet so far, there doesn't seem to be any effort to join forces. Indeed, Poilievre denied a Toronto Star story that he had recently called Ford seeking his assistance. Ford also denied Poilievre was seeking help, but did say he indicated to the Conservative leader that he would be staying out of the federal election.

Asked last week about campaigning for Poilievre, Ford said that he's "not going to help anyone. That's not my job."

He added that his priority is to keep Ontario moving forward. As for whether his MPPs could help the federal Conservatives, he said they'll be "absolutely swamped" with fulfilling their mandates and should be focused on Ontario.

Ford wouldn't say whether he'd have a better relationship with Poilievre or Carney, instead insisting he will "work with anyone."

But he conceded that it's "no secret" that he's developed close relationships with some federal Liberal cabinet ministers, including Chrystia Freeland and Dominic LeBlanc.

"I don't know either one of them, to be very frank," Ford said of Poilievre and Carney.