What to watch for this year in the wild world of Alberta politics

Provincial cabinet ministers say Alberta has its swagger back, pointing to growing employment rates and corporate investment in the province.

But while the United Conservative Party (UCP) government tries to direct attention to the economy — with Premier Jason Kenney mentioning new private sector projects or investments at every opportunity — political scientists say much of Albertans' interest in provincial politics in 2022 will be focused on leadership and health-care management.

"We're seeing some of the best economic news of my generation in this province," government House leader Jason Nixon told reporters last month.

"And I strongly believe this party will be judged in 2023 at the polls based on what happens with the economy and the management of fiscal affairs inside this province."

Not so fast, say political pundits.

The issues they're watching in 2022 are impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the government's often divisive responses. Alberta's health-care system is battered, with high demand and burned-out workers leading to intermittent rural hospital closures and delayed ambulances.

Political observers are also eyeing the looming shadow of the elephant in the room — challenges to Kenney's leadership from within his own party, and the UCP's dismal public polling numbers.

Nixon last month dismissed discontent with Kenney's leadership as "primarily the focus of Twitter and those talking heads within our world."

Political scientists say Kenney and his inner circle ignore it at their peril.

They say Kenney and his supporters must walk the tightrope of trying to win back disaffected party members while positioning themselves as palatable to voters in the next  provincial election, scheduled for May 2023.

"[Kenney is] between a rock and a hard place," said Brendan Boyd, a professor of anthropology, economics and political science at Edmonton's MacEwan University.

"He has to be able to keep his party together and win the leadership review, but also be able to pivot from that and win the general election."

That leadership review is scheduled to take place in Red Deer on April 9 — a later date than some within the party had pushed for.

Lori Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Calgary's Mount Royal University, said the government's apparent abandonment of its "grassroots guarantee" to take policy direction from party members — instead imposing top-down decisions — has disenfranchised many members.