What to expect from Ontario politics and the Doug Ford government in 2024

The new year brings new opportunities for Premier Doug Ford to try to move past the controversies that plagued his government in 2023.

The Greenbelt scandal dominated Ontario politics for much of last year. Although Ford's government has reversed its move to give select developers the right to build housing in the protected area (potentially boosting their land values by $8.3 billion), the RCMP is investigating how it all happened.

If that investigation results in criminal charges against anyone connected to the government, the Greenbelt will again become front and centre on the provincial political scene.

In 2024, Ford will be facing a new political threat in the form of newly elected Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie. She in turn will be battling it out with newish NDP leader Marit Stiles to position themselves as best placed to defeat Ford in the 2026 election.

As Ford's government heads toward the midpoint of its mandate, the PCs will be striving for progress on the promises they made in the 2022 election campaign under the "Get It Done" slogan, starting with a Get-It-Done-themed party policy conference in February.

To get a flavour for what to expect in Ontario politics in 2024, CBC News interviewed strategists linked to each of the three main parties: 

All three strategists agree that housing will be an issue that's top of mind for voters and politicians in 2024. The government is heading into the third year of its 10-year pledge for 1.5 million homes to be built in Ontario, but the pace of new home construction starts so far remains far slower than what it will take to hit that target. 

"There are reasons for that [pace] that aren't in the government's control, there's a labour shortage, interest rates make it more difficult to finance construction," Heimpel said.

"But they have to show progress on housing, especially now that the federal government is finally showing progress," he said. "They've really got to get out of the mud on housing." 

The government walked back several of its key proposals to make more land available for housing, including opening up the Greenbelt, forcing cities to expand their boundaries, and allowing home construction on prime agricultural land.       

"They're going to need to find a new way to tackle that problem if they want to have some success on it in the coming year," Leichnitz said.

She says Ford's push to build housing in the Greenbelt fuelled a perception among voters that he's making decisions to benefit wealthy friends and insiders. Ford's ability to counter that perception will be crucial for his political future. 

The province continues to face unprecedented staffing challenges in the health care sector, with thousands of nurses leaving the profession and more than two million Ontarians going without a family doctor.

The government has made various moves to try to alleviate the shortages — including opening more medical school spots, making it easier to get a nursing degree, and clearing some of the hurdles for foreign-trained health professionals to get work in Ontario.