What the Ontario election candidates need to do for tonight's debate

With polls suggesting Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford commands a strong lead in the Ontario election, tonight's prime-time debate could be one of the last opportunities for the opposition leaders to deflate some of that support.

Last Friday afternoon, Ford, along with NDP Leader Marit Stiles, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner faced off against each other in North Bay, Ont., where much of the focus of their first debate was related to northern issues.

Tonight's debate, taking place in Toronto just 10 days before voters go to the polls, will be seen by a much wider audience, raising the stakes for each candidates' performance.

This final debate of the campaign runs from 6:30-8 p.m. ET and will be moderated by David Common, the host of CBC Radio's Metro Morning. People can also watch the debate on CBC-TV, stream it online, get live updates, or listen on CBC Radio.

There will be no live audience and, unlike the debate in North Bay, candidate will be allowed to bring prepared notes.

CBC News spoke with political analysts, observers and academics about what each leader needs to do tonight:

Ford triggered the snap election saying he needed a new mandate to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. And he has since taken on a so-called "Captain Canada" mantle, becoming the unofficial advocate for not just the province, but the country. He has travelled to Washington and appeared in U.S. media to make the case against tariffs. 

Polls suggest these actions appear to be paying off politically. His job tonight, say some analysts, therefore should be to stick to the relatively simple message he has hammered throughout the campaign — that only he as premier is best suited to deal with Trump's tariff threat.

"If I'm the premier, I want to be focused on the economy and President Trump," said Adam Yahn, a partner with the government relations firm Summa Strategies Canada, who has worked with various Conservative politicians.

"Those are the areas that the PCs are seen as the leading party, the party best positioned to support and deliver on those issues."

Over the past seven years of government, and during the campaign, Ford has been able to sail through without much sticking to him and he should mostly ignore the criticisms that will be hurled at him during tonight's debate, Yahn said.

"Why even acknowledge what they're saying? Just stick to your lines and stick to your message," he said.

Jaskaran Sandhu, a political organizer and strategist with State Strategy, agrees that Ford should pay little attention to the other leaders, and bring everything back to Trump and tariffs.

"I would literally say, 'OK, well, as these two fight for who's the Opposition leader, I'm here to talk about the most important fight of how I'm going to deal with Trump."