What led to the Azerbaijan Airlines jet crash? | Explained

Azerbaijan Airlines flight 4K-AZ65 crash investigation raises legal, safety, and accountability concerns in international aviation.

The story so far:

On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, 4K-AZ65, en route from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya in Russia, with 67 passengers and crew, faced a series of serious technical difficulties. The weather appeared to have been a factor as the crew attempted to divert to Makhachkala in Russia. There was another diversion to Aktau in Kazakhstan by the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea, but the plane impacted the ground about three kilometres from Aktau’s airport, and 38 passengers were killed. There are conflicting reports on the cause, linked to a series of holes in a part of the fuselage and a survivor passenger’s video footage. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said “we can say with complete clarity that the plane was shot down... We are not saying that it was done intentionally, but it was done”. Azerbaijan has said that the aircraft “was ordered” to fly across the Caspian Sea after it was denied landing at two Russian airports. Data from the black boxes have been decoded in Brazil, where the twin-engine aircraft, an Embraer ERJ-190AR, was manufactured.

The flight data site, Flightradar24, has told The Hindu that “We can confirm that the flight was operating in an area affected by GPS jamming and spoofing, hence we did not see a large portion of the flight. The last portion of the flight was operated in an area of good coverage.”

The website of Azerbaijan Airlines says the airline, which is a member of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), is in full compliance with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards. The airline has announced the suspension of flights to several cities in Russia on the directive of the Azerbaijan State Civil Aviation Authority following preliminary results from an investigation into the crash.

A report on the President of Russia’s official website, titled “Telephone conversation with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, December 28, 2024”, says: “The presidents had a detailed discussion of issues regarding the December 25 crash .... Vladimir Putin apologised for the fact that the incident happened in Russian airspace... It was noted during the conversation that the Azerbaijani passenger airliner was flying according to schedule and repeatedly tried to land at Grozny Airport. At that time, Ukrainian unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) attacked Grozny, Mozdok and Vladikavkaz, and Russian air defence systems were repelling these attacks. The Russian Investigative Committee initiated a criminal case under Article 263 of the Criminal Code (violation of the rules for traffic safety and operation of the air transportation systems). Initial investigation is underway....”

A media report says that the flight data have been analysed by the Aeronautical Accident Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA), Air Force Command, the central investigative body that is overseen by the Brazilian Air Force. Investigators from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia are also involved.

On January 3, 2025, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, said 17 international experts including those from ICAO and the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), the body representing some of the Commonwealth of Independent States (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), were invited to ensure an “impartial and objective incident investigation”.