What happened in the Alberta election? Here's what the numbers say

The most consequential numbers to come out of the 2023 Alberta election are the ones that determine the makeup of the legislature: the United Conservative Party won 49 seats to the Alberta New Democrats' 38.

But while Elections Alberta will release the official figures on June 8, the unofficial numbers have many stories to tell and perspective to offer about what happened in this election.

Let's dig in.

The UCP saw its share of the vote decrease from the 2019 election in more ridings than those in which its share increased. And those increases were marginal, largely in the range of one to three percentage points, none higher than seven.

By contrast, the NDP's vote share went up almost everywhere — only three ridings had the party earning a slightly smaller percentage of the votes compared with 2019: Central Peace-Notley, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and Lesser Slave Lake. Those decreases were marginal, but many of those NDP gains were significant: 48 ridings with increases of double-digit points, including two above 20.

It's not surprising, then, that the differential in vote share between the two parties — that is, how many percentage points a seat was won by — swung heavily against the UCP compared to the previous election.

The top 25 ridings where the UCP lost the most vote share relative to the NDP were all in Calgary (20), Red Deer (two), Airdrie (two) and Edmonton (one). In 14 of those ridings, the UCP-NDP differential swung by 20 percentage points or more away from the blue team.

However, because the UCP often had a significant cushion in 2019, that shift wasn't always enough to flip the seat. Of those 25 ridings with the biggest shift away from the UCP, the NDP won 11 seats — two of which they already had.

A good example is Calgary-Shaw, which saw the biggest swing in vote share. In 2019, the UCP won 65.3 per cent of the vote, and the NDP won 25.6 per cent — a margin of 39.7 percentage points. In this election, the NDP's vote share in Calgary-Shaw surged to 42.7 per cent. But the UCP still won the seat with 56.2 per cent of the vote, despite a 26-point swing in the difference between the two parties.

Each riding, of course, has its own story with multiple factors at play. In 2019, the Alberta Party earned six per cent of the vote in Calgary-Shaw, but didn't have a candidate in the riding this year. Some of those voters likely make up part of the NDP's 17-point gain. And some voters who cast a ballot for the UCP in 2019 may have stayed home this time, or voted NDP, or spoiled their ballot.

Overall, the UCP's share of the vote provincewide only fell two points, to 52.6 per cent. The NDP gained 11 points, to 44.0 per cent.

But other parties had notable shifts since 2019. The Green Party nearly doubled its share of the vote to jump to third place. The Alberta Party fell from third place in 2019 with nine per cent of the total vote to fourth in 2023, with just under one per cent.