What an investigation into war crimes could mean for Russian aggression in Ukraine

The International Criminal Court (ICC) will investigate possible war crimes in Ukraine, but experts say it's unclear whether the move could sway Russian President Vladimir Putin to de-escalate his government's invasion of the country.

"Maybe, and maybe not, but I don't think people should expect that," said Mark Kersten, a senior researcher at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto and an expert on international criminal law.

"I don't think anyone should rightly ever expect that just because there's an intervention by the International Criminal Court that that will solve the war, that that will lead to peace."

An unprecedented 39 member countries, including Canada, made referrals to the ICC asking it to investigate atrocities in Ukraine. The ICC's top prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan, announced on Wednesday that he would open an investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity in the region.

The investigation will cover all sides of the conflict, Khan wrote in a statement.

Reports indicate that Russian-led forces have harmed civilians and struck civilian buildings, including schools and hospitals. NATO officials have accused Russia of using cluster munition in their attacks on Ukraine — bombs that can kill indiscriminately and are banned under international law.

Russia has repeatedly denied the allegations.

As of Saturday, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has confirmed a total of 1,123 civilian casualties — 364 killed and 759 injured — in Ukraine since the start of the conflict on Feb. 24, but the true number is unknown and expected to be higher.

Heidi Matthews, an assistant professor of international criminal law at Osgoode Hall Law School in Toronto, says the ICC's decision could embolden Putin, particularly in the midst of conflict.

"There's a big difference between using an international court to come in and assign responsibility once a peace agreement has been reached or where hostilities have ended — but it's a really fraught and potentially more dangerous question what the impact of these institutions is in the context of the ongoing war," she said.

The ICC, located in The Hague, has the power to investigate reports of crimes that contravene humanitarian law and hold perpetrators to account.

"It can conduct its investigations and try to document the occurrence of war crimes and then potentially issue an indictment of the perpetrators, including all the way up to Putin," said Michael Bryant, a history professor at Bryant University in Rhode Island and author of A World History of War Crimes.

"Is it likely to be done? I don't know. This has never quite happened at this level before. Russia's an extremely powerful country."

Neither Russia nor Ukraine are members of the ICC. Following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian government issued declarations giving the ICC jurisdiction to look into war crimes in its territory dating back to Nov. 21, 2013. One of the declarations continues to apply.