Unpredictable rainfall makes farming in Marathwada even harder

Unpredictable rainfall patterns in Maharashtra's Jalna district threaten farmers' livelihoods, highlighting the urgent need for new water management strategies.

In Maharashtra’s Jalna district, Dada Rao Ghatode, a farmer from Babultara village, owns eight acres of land where he grows soybean, cotton, and pigeon pea (tur) during the kharif season (July to October). This season, he expected at least ₹80,000 in return from four acres of soybean. However, a single day of heavy rains in September ruined nearly 80% of his crop.

This was not an isolated incident. Across Marathwada, farmers are grappling with unpredictable changes in rainfall distribution, which are threatening their livelihoods. Jalna, along with all other districts in Marathwada, has experienced a sharp increase in extreme rainfall events, disrupting traditional farming practices and water management systems.

Through the last two decades, the distribution of rainfall in Jalna has changed significantly, according to our analysis of daily gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department. The region’s total annual rainfall has been relatively stable but the timing and intensity of the rains have become erratic. Already infamous for its droughts, Marathwada now oscillates between periods of little water and those of too much, which also cause severe waterlogging during the kharif season.

Traditionally, farmers grow water-intensive crops such as paddy, maize, pulses, soybean, and groundnut during the kharif cropping season, and expect good yields. But with an increasingly unstable monsoon, the farmers have had to fall back more and more on rabi season (November to April) crops such as sorghum, chana, and wheat, which have lower market prices. Even though most farmers own medium to large land-holdings, they are not prospering.

Data from 2001 to 2023 indicated that rains in July, August, and September accounted for 70% of Jalna’s annual rainfall, and that the monsoon arrived late in July and August in most of these years (Chart 1). Further, the amount of rain in July and August fell short as much as 70% of the time, while there was a 50% chance of downpours deviating from normal patterns in September.

Chart 1 | A long period average was calculated for the period from 1961 to 2010, and each category of rainfall was estimated for that month for the last 22 years (as per the IMD method)

The greater cause for alarm may be the number of rainy days: the frequency of those with more than 3 mm of rain dropped by 30% in August, a critical period for crop growth. September had 18% more rainy days, meaning the land was water-logged just as the crops approached harvest (Chart 2 and 3).