Under-reading and over-reading the Karnataka vote Premium

The vote in the Karnataka Assembly election in 2023 is n occasion for a wild democratic celebration

Over the last few days, there have been some very fine analyses of the Karnataka Assembly vote of 2023. We are told how different regions voted; how the AHINDA platform (Muslims, the backwards and Dalits) has re-emerged; how caste groups such as the Lingayats and Vokkalingas have consolidated; how anti-incumbency is a proud Karnataka State tradition; how the charge of 40% corruption sarkara stuck; how regional pride was stirred by the Nandini versus Amul milk controversy; how the BJP’s communal card had limited success; how farmer’s distress found a voice; how people vote differently in State and national elections; how the power of local Congress leaders and their welfarist manifesto resonated better with the voters than the double engine slogan of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supremo, and how the Bharat Jodo Yatra had a significant effect. These are all important insights. They help us to understand the distinctiveness of the Assembly elections in one Indian State — Karnataka.

But, they tell only half the story. The commentaries are too State specific. They under-read the result as if it is only a Karnataka story. There is, however, another story that can also be drawn from the anecdotes recounted, the quantitative data of opinion surveys, the Election Commission of India percentages, field reports and the editorial commentaries.

This other story also needs to be simultaneously told. It contains lessons for our global and national discourses on democracy. The Karnataka vote is about democracy’s vulnerability. And about its resilience. At the risk of over-reading it, therefore, let me attempt this other telling.

Some of the analysts have described the Karnataka elections as a quarter-final for the general election in 2024, the semi-final being the next round of State elections to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. This is both right and wrong. It is right in a temporal sense since, in terms of the calendar, May 2023 comes before November 2023, and both precede 2024. In this sequence, the election was certainly a quarter-final, and 2024 will be the final. But it is also wrong in that it only looks at electoral politics and not at democratic politics. Democratic politics is more layered. Electoral politics is only a subset.

As our society responds to the inevitable dynamics of modernity in the long unceasing march of history, democratic politics in India also seeks to respond to this dynamics. Voters in democracies speak as citizens and not just as voters. Their vote is, therefore, a political aggregation of historical memories and social imaginaries. It is a consolidated outcome of many factors. This is the Karnataka story which must also be recovered. In this sense it is not a quarter-final but can, paradoxically enough, be labelled as a post-2024 election, one that foretells the future of democracy in India. The vote in Karnataka is thus an occasion for a wild democratic celebration. Let us look at the five futuristic messages.

Before I list them, however, let me briefly describe the unique political personality of Karnataka which has made these two stories of electoral politics and democratic politics so credible. Karnataka has much in common with the other States in India, such as unacceptable inequality, persistent poverty, farmer distress, climate stress, cultural diversity, a developing regional identity, marginal communities, wide-spread corruption and so on. The talk of an electoral template from Karnataka is, thus, very much in order.

But Karnataka also has significant distinct features that set it apart from most other States except perhaps those from South India and Maharashtra. These also drive politics. Succinctly put, Karnataka has the Lingayat maths, that offer spiritual discourses, but also the community education societies such as the Karnatak Lingayat Education Society that offers courses in law, commerce, medicine and engineering. It has shakas, madrasas, and evangelical movements, but also pubs, fusion restaurants, and unicorns. For every Koshy it has an MTR. It supports a large diaspora both internally, Biharis and Tamilians, and externally, Kannadigas in the United States, both of whom send images of what the future looks like. They have seen it and they want it. That is why Pramod Muthalik of the Sri Rama Sene, which is involved in incidents of intimidation on Valentine’s day, got a pitiable 4,508 votes. Hindutva in 2023 lost to modernity in Karnataka. That is what makes 2023 a post 2024 election. Now the five lessons.