Uncertainty blankets Metro Vancouver as Liberals gain traction in historically NDP, Conservative ridings

This is part of a series of regional features focusing on issues and ridings in B.C. that could prove critical to the outcome of the federal election on April 28.

Just days before the 2025 federal election, the potential outcome in several Metro Vancouver ridings is unclear, even in those that are often considered sure things for all of the three main parties.

A couple of weeks ago, the polls were showing the potential that the Liberals may win every seat in the Metro Vancouver area. As of April 24, the region's leaning weren't quite as clear; 338.com data showed a toss up in several ridings. 

"The Liberals are doing a lot better than they had in the last few elections, the NDP doing a bit worse, Conservatives more or less on track with where they were in the past," said Éric Grenier, a poll analyst and writer with The Writ, and who is running the CBC Poll Tracker. 

"It raises the question of how many of those seats are going to flip."

Conservative incumbents in ridings like South Surrey-White Rock and Abbotsford-South Langley are facing tough competition from Liberal candidates, polls show. 

Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could actually lose his seat in Burnaby Central, which polling website 338.com has consistently shown as Liberal leaning during the campaign. 

Singh himself didn't necessarily seem steadfast in his ability to win the riding; when reporters asked him about his chances two weeks ago, Singh initially dodged the question. It took a reporter asking again for him to say "I'm confident that I'll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central." 

Even Vancouver East, where the NDP's Jenny Kwan has held the MP seat for nearly 10 years, and her predecessor Libby Davies, also of the NDP and who held it for eight years, isn't safe for the New Democrats this time around; on Thursday morning, 338 suggested the Liberals had an equal shot at winning the seat. 

Political scientist Stewart Prest said it's notable that the Liberals would even have a shot in that riding.

"If there's a safe seat for the NDP in the country, we would think it would be Vancouver East," he said.

"It is an unusual election." 

For the purpose of this story, CBC News looked at 23 ridings in the Metro Vancouver area, as shown below. 

As of Thursday, 10 of those ridings, situated throughout the region, were considered a "toss up" by 338.com — that is, the numbers weren't strong enough to determine one clear winner in those areas.