Two-thirds of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada or lean that way, new poll suggests

Petition signings and packed town halls haven't swayed a vast majority of Albertans toward separating from Canada, new data suggests.

A poll released Monday by the Angus Reid Institute found that 65 per cent of the 979 Albertans surveyed say they would either vote to stay in Canada or lean toward voting that way if a referendum on Alberta separation were held today, while 29 per cent say they would vote or lean toward voting to leave.

Of the two-thirds who say they want to remain in Canada, 57 per cent said they would definitely vote to stay, while eight per cent say they would lean toward voting to stay.

Meanwhile, eight per cent of those in favour of separation would definitely vote to leave, while 21 per cent would lean toward vote to leave.

Five per cent of respondents said they still weren't sure.

Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, says the significant chunk of respondents who would lean toward voting to leave — representing about one in five Albertans — is "really going to be where the heart and soul of the fight for Alberta sovereignty versus Alberta remaining [in Canada] will boil down."

"In the end, do they tip all the way over into definitely voting to leave, or do they lean back and tip back to the stay side?"

Another poll, conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights last December, suggested that one in five Albertans would vote to separate.

The latest poll by Angus Reid was conducted through an online survey from Feb. 2 to 6.

Kurl pointed to the "political division" within the United Conservative Party (UCP) on the issue of separation when compared to Alberta NDP voters, 93 per cent of whom are in favour of remaining in Canada, according to the poll.

"The UCP base is interesting because it is much more divided," Kurl said.

Of the respondents who identified as UCP voters, 41 per cent lean toward leaving, while 16 per cent say they would definitely vote to leave Canada.

Meanwhile, 26 per cent of those who identify as UCP voters say they would definitely vote to stay.

"The number of UCP voters who say that they would definitely vote to stay actually outnumbers those who say they would definitely vote to leave," Kurl said.