Trump tariffs raise odds of U.S. recession, Wall Street economists say

The risk of a recession in the U.S. is rising following President Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a research note on Monday, economists with the investment bank put the odds of the economy entering a recession within the next 12 months at at 45%, up from 35% in its previous forecast. Goldman cited tightening financial conditions, consumer boycotts of U.S. goods and uncertainty over the Trump administration's economic policies, saying those factors are "likely to depress capital spending" by more than the bank had previously forecast. 

"The combination of larger tariffs, greater policy uncertainty, declining business and consumer confidence, and messaging from the administration indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of its policies increase downside risk," Goldman analysts said.