Trump says the war on Iran is 'militarily' won. Yet there's still no end — or endgame — in sight

Three weeks into the conflict in the Middle East, the joint U.S.-Israel onslaught has killed much of Iran's leadership, knocked out much of its ballistic missile capability, sunk nearly all of its navy and, according to U.S. President Donald Trump, has "militarily WON" the war already. 

And yet, the war goes on.

The Islamic regime remains in power in Tehran, continues to hit Gulf countries with occasional strikes and has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices through the roof and giving the global economy the jitters. 

What is a commander-in-chief to do now? 

Trump faces some tough decisions about next steps, according to a range of defence and foreign policy strategists. Chief among those decisions are choosing whether to deploy ground troops to weaken Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, and deciding how much further he's willing to pursue efforts to topple the Iranian regime. 

These decisions are made tougher because of a paradox that has defined the war from the start: while the military objectives of the U.S. appear relatively clear and achievable, Trump's political objectives in attacking Iran remain muddled. 

Perhaps unintentionally, Trump demonstrated that paradox in the social media post on Friday in which he declared the war "militarily" won. The word serves as a caveat, indicating that while U.S. and Israeli forces have hammered Iran, there's no end in sight to the conflict. 

Signs of that contradiction abound: 

Freeing up the strait, the transit route for roughly one-fifth of the world's supply of crude oil and liquified natural gas exiting the Persian Gulf, has now arguably become Trump's top priority as global energy prices spike.

Bob McNally, who served as energy adviser to former president George W. Bush and now leads Rapidan Energy Group, an energy and geopolitical consulting firm, says Iran has been smart with its tactics in choking off the narrow waterway. 

"Unfortunately, Iran has shrewdly played the strongest card," McNally told CBC News Network on Friday. "It has grabbed a hold of nothing less than the world's jugular." 

Anyone in doubt of the metaphor just has to fill up their tank. A hemisphere away from the Strait of Hormuz, gas in the U.S. is now 30 per cent more expensive than when the war began three weeks ago. 

McNally says it won't be simple for the U.S. to wrest control of the strait away from Iran, which he says still possesses thousands of small boats, drones and anti-ship cruise missiles. 

"It's sort of like whack-a-mole … only there's thousands and thousands of moles," McNally said. "This may have to go on for another few weeks, if not more."