Trump’s Venezuela Policy Isn’t The Checkmate On China He Says It Is

Amid the administration's claims to be solidifying America's influence in its neighborhood, Washington's shock moves may actually cede ground to Beijing.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the deadly raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was critical to American influence and success, in part because the U.S. could gain access to the country’s vast amount of oil. Another key benefit, according to Trump: reining in China.

“If we didn’t do this,” Trump said Friday, referring to the U.S. military swooping in to seize Maduro and his dubious claims that the U.S. will now “run” the South American nation, “China would have been there and Russia would have been there.”

The State Department promoted his message, which echoes the president’s talk of a “Donroe Doctrine” – a Trump-era interpretation of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, which positioned the U.S. as the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere, resisting any attempts at European colonialism.

The underlying logic is that such a position will leave the U.S. better off relative to its rivals, which in this era primarily means Beijing. But experts increasingly doubt the Trump administration’s Venezuela policy will weaken China — and see signs he may end up benefiting it.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, which have been underutilized for years. Over the past two decades, China has increasingly collaborated with Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, both heavy skeptics of the U.S.; all told, Beijing has pumped some $100 billion into Venezuela, chiefly in pursuit of access to oil to support its roaring domestic needs. But amid mismanagement and mounting American sanctions, Venezuela’s production has actually plummeted, with even its most productive period in 2025 providing less than half of its daily output in the mid-2000s.