Trump casts a long shadow as world leaders gather for APEC and G20 summits

Donald Trump's coming return to the White House hangs heavily over world leaders gathering this week in Peru for the APEC summit and then in Brazil for the G20 — two of the first international summits to be held since the U.S election.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to leave for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima today before moving on to the G20 in Rio de Janeiro, which begins Nov. 18.

While the official agendas for these summits are set months in advance, there's no doubt that Trump's win will affect both the substance and the tone of the discussions.

"Of course the election result changes what people are talking about," said a senior Canadian government official who is not authorized to speak publicly about the summits. "Especially on the margins, in the corridors. The talk will be the U.S. and leaders will compare notes."

The world now knows more about Trump, his views and his policy plans than it did the first time he was elected.

"This time, there's a lot more intelligence to be had. So as opposed to the first administration, there's more substance upon which to have discussions," said Carlo Dade, director of the trade infrastructure centre at the Canada West Foundation.

"I would expect there will be more context for conversations about how to respond."

APEC, made up of 21 member nations, is considered the leading economic forum in the Asia-Pacific region. Those countries cannot ignore president-elect Trump's promise to impose new global tariffs.

"A lot of the APEC countries are targets," said Dade, adding that all attendees will try to figure out where they rank on the U.S. "trade enemies list."

Canada's relatively new, ramped-up Indo-Pacific strategy makes APEC critical to its trade diversification plans. Experts say the summit offers an opportunity for nations to team up to protect their market share from a surge in American protectionism — but the temptation to break ranks will be great.

"Some say when the U.S. becomes unreliable and unpredictable, that other democracies, middle powers like Japan, Australia, Canada and others, should be coming together and cooperating more closely," said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

"But we also see a tendency that everybody just tries to manage their relationship with the U.S. bilaterally, like everybody is just trying to survive the chaos as opposed to coordinating."

Getting nations to cooperate at the G20 — the assembly of the 20 largest economies in the world — is even more challenging. As the largest and most diverse gathering of states, the G20 brings together friends and rivals — and enemies.

"The G20 is the biggest table in international relations that includes such a diversity of the biggest players," said the unnamed senior government official. "They have in common that they are the world's largest economies, but it's such a diverse table that there are profound disagreements."