Trudeau heads for the hotseat at NATO summit as allies question Canada's defence commitments

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads to Washington today for a meeting of NATO nations — where he's widely expected to hear some tough talk from allies behind closed doors about his government's refusal to deliver a clear plan to meet the alliance's defence spending targets.

Twenty-three of 32 NATO member nations are expected this year to meet the alliance target of spending a minimum of two per cent of their gross domestic products on defence. Canada is among a handful of NATO countries that don't meet that benchmark.

Former Canadian ambassador to NATO Kerry Buck said her experience of these summits suggests that the naming and shaming goes on behind closed doors at individual bilateral meetings.

When all the leaders gather together in formal sessions, however, names are not mentioned. Instead, statistics showing each country's contribution are flashed up on a screen.

"It's used as a political club," Buck said of the two per cent benchmark. "And no doubt, unless there's a signal before the summit, Canada will get beaten about the head and shoulders with that club."

Canada currently has a plan to get its military spending up to 1.76 per cent of GDP.

The Liberal government has vowed that planned military spending which has not yet been approved will push the country over the two per cent line. But those statements fall short of the clear plan NATO is expecting to see.

"If the government is smart, they should announce two per cent with a date and a plan before Washington. Because the longer we hang out there as the outlier, the bigger target space we're giving to whoever the next American president is," Buck said.

In a background technical briefing, senior government officials insisted Friday that the federal government's new defence policy represents Canada's commitment to getting to two per cent. One senior official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, insisted the whole debate has been overblown.

"Over time when we had these summits with Americans, or meetings, observers often expect the Americans to be critical of us, and frankly, it never happens," said the official, who pointed to U.S. President Joe Biden's spring visit to Ottawa, during which the defence spending target wasn't raised.

"The discussion going into that was, he was expected to come in and criticize Canada for not doing its part. In fact, the opposite happened. They see the contribution we're making. And they recognize it. And I expect nothing different next week."

That remark appears to ignore the fact that a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers wrote to the prime minister last spring urging Canada to meet the renewed benchmark, which was agreed to by all allies at last year's NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

On Friday, soon-to-retire NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underlined the two per cent commitment and said that allies are expecting more.

"We agreed last year that two per cent was the minimum," Stoltenberg said. "So of course we have more to do and I expect that at Washington we will then also strengthen the message about defence spending, or make sure that allies are delivering."