Trudeau goes into 2024 in dire need of a better story to tell

The memo sent to staff in the Prime Minister's Office to announce the hiring of Max Valiquette as the government's new executive director of communications said the former marketing executive would be focused on, among other things, "aligning the entire team under a clear narrative."

In politics, a clear narrative isn't everything, but it's a lot. And at least one of the reasons for the Liberal government's struggles in 2023 might be that Justin Trudeau's side lacked a compelling narrative — a tidy story to tell about itself and the country — or didn't do enough to be heard.

There are very real problems abroad in the land that might explain why popular sentiment toward Trudeau and the Liberals has eroded over the past year, and why opinion polls this fall gave the Conservative Party the biggest advantage it has enjoyed since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party more than a decade ago.

Though the pandemic — arguably the hardest three years for Canadians since the Second World War — officially came to an end in May, it has not given way to a golden new dawn.

Inflation has cooled considerably from its high point in 2022, but it is still higher than most Canadians are used to and the impact of that peak still lingers. Interest rates have risen as a consequence of the Bank of Canada's attempts to quell inflation. With construction failing to keep pace with demand, the cost of housing has surged. And the opioid epidemic persists.

Canadians have reasons to feel worried or frustrated — although the extent of that downturn in the national mood might still be surprising.

In 2014, a year before Trudeau came to office, Pollara found that 45 per cent of Canadians were optimistic about the future of the middle class. Two years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, that figure was at 53 per cent.

But when Pollara (whose chief strategy officer is Dan Arnold, Trudeau's former pollster) asked the question again this November, just 31 per cent said they were optimistic.

Beyond inflation, interest rates and the real estate market, there might be other reasons to worry about the future. The threat of climate change is now alarmingly apparent — 2023 should be remembered for the record-smashing wildfires and the smoke that shrouded the sun and poisoned the air.

The United States, our loud neighbour, remains riven by political turmoil — dysfunction that threatens the basic tenets of that country's democracy.

But whatever the exact reasons for that waning optimism, those numbers pose a daunting political challenge for a prime minister who made a focus on the middle class a central part of the agenda he brought to office in 2015. When voters are dealing with real problems, it can also be a lot harder to tell them an optimistic story — especially if you've already been in office for eight years

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a skilled storyteller. He looks upon the public's frustrations and offers a simple narrative: everything is bad, it's all Justin Trudeau's fault and under a Conservative government things will cost less.

If voters are mad about grocery bills or merely tired of Justin Trudeau, that message might be enough on its own to secure victory. After testing the Conservative Party's television ads with focus groups, one pollster concluded that Poilievre's party, like the Liberal Party in 2015, is becoming the "party of hope."

When there are very real issues at play, it might seem trite to think about narrative. The idea of a narrative fits more comfortably with fiction than non-fiction. It can be concocted or contrived, manipulated or manipulative. It is not necessarily anchored in the truth.