Toronto voters say federal byelection is a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future

The upcoming Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection will be a critical test for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his party — a bellwether indicating how the party is faring in an area of the country where Liberals have performed well for decades.

CBC News spoke to 15 voters in the riding to gauge support for the incumbent party and to learn more about what's motivating people at the ballot box.

While the June 24 byelection is being held to pick a new MP for Toronto's midtown, some voters are treating the summer vote as a referendum on Trudeau's time in power.

All of the voters who spoke to CBC, including past and current Liberal supporters, said Trudeau should step down as leader if the party loses this Toronto stronghold.

"I think Mr. Trudeau will be quaking in his boots very soon because — it's just time. It's time for a change," said Erica Bertucca, who was among the first in line to vote at the historic Timothy Eaton Memorial Church where Elections Canada held one of its advance polls.

Pointing to the steady stream of voters who shuffled into the polling station after it opened on Friday, Bertucca said the relatively strong turnout was a sign that voters are motivated to turf Trudeau.

"That's what everybody behind me in line was talking about — time for a change," she said.

Elections Canada said 10,787 ballots — an estimated 12.75 per cent of the riding's registered electors — were cast in the advance poll last weekend.

But that doesn't mean everyone is sold on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Some disaffected Liberals said they still plan to back their party's candidate in this byelection — former Parliament Hill staffer Leslie Church — because they're uneasy with Poilievre and what he has planned for the country if he forms a government.

Some voters described Poilievre as "irresponsible," a "negative" leader who doesn't offer many solutions, someone who's "rough around the edges" and a "populist" who uses "dog whistles" to speak to a right-wing base.

Others said Poilievre is the leader best positioned to take the country in a new direction after the perceived failures of the Liberal government.

Toronto-St. Paul's, which has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years, is one of the safest seats in the country for the governing party.

Former long-time Liberal MP and cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, who carried the seat even during the party's historic low point in 2011, won by more than 20 points in the last federal election.