Toronto's gun violence is trending down despite recent daytime shootings, data shows

Despite a pair of recent daytime shootings in Toronto that have left the city shaken, statistics show gun violence in the city has in fact decreased from the year before.

Deaths and injuries due to shootings are down 25 per cent compared to this time last year, according to crime data from Toronto Police Services. In 2022, 88 people had been injured or killed as a result of gun violence by July 16. By the same date in 2023, 66 people were injured or killed. 

The data also shows that by July 16, 2022, there were 221 total shootings and firearms discharges. So far this year, there have been 158.

"That's not to say there aren't parts of the city that have problems related to gun violence, these are often neighbourhoods experiencing social deprivation," said Akwasi Owusu-Bempah, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Toronto who specializes in race, social inequity and criminal justice. 

"The daylight shootings, and other violent incidents on our transit system, we need to think about these in context."

On July 7, 44-year-old mother Karolina Huebner-Makurat, also known as Caroline, was killed after a stray bullet from a gunfight struck her while she walked at Queen Street East and Carlaw Avenue in Leslieville. In Scarborough, two alleged shooters and a bystander were injured in a gun fight over the weekend.

But while the violence has increased anxiety for many in the city, academics and advocates maintain Toronto is a generally safe city and say addressing the root causes of gun violence should be the priority. 

Owusu-Bempah said when issues plaguing neighbourhoods that have been neglected start to spill out into areas less familiar with gun violence, that draws attention, he said. 

"We need to consider that we've just come out of a global pandemic. We have increased rates of homelessness and mental health that are present that many people are seeing, that might lead them to question their personal safety," said  Owusu-Bempah. 

"Toronto continues to be a very safe city by historical comparisons, by national comparison and by international comparisons," he said.

It's also important to understand that year-to-year comparisons do not illustrate long-term trends. Averages need to be examined over five, 10 and 20 year periods, said Owusu-Bempah. On top of that, Toronto's population continues to grow, so the rate of shootings should also be looked at in that light, he said.

Nationally, there's been a decline in firearm-related crime driven by a drop in incidents specifically in Toronto over the last two years, according to Statistics Canada. 

The federal government attributes the declines due to fewer robberies — a shift it says could be the result of pandemic-related measures that have caused retail businesses to change models, with fewer storefronts. 

Scarborough resident Louis March, founder of the advocacy group Zero Gun Violence Movement, said declining numbers could mean efforts to keep people out of gangs are working.