These are the top 10 ridings to watch in Toronto and the GTA
CBC
If Mark Carney is to lead his Liberal Party to its fourth straight term in government, seats in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area will form the backbone of his win.
There are 55 ridings up for grabs between the 416 and 905, home to an estimated 4.5 million eligible voters.
Toronto and the GTA have been dominated by the Liberals in every election since 2015. Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party will need to chip away at that dominance to have any hope of winning enough seats nationwide to form government.
The New Democrats haven't won in Toronto since 2011 and haven't won a single seat in the suburban cities of the GTA since 1990, in a byelection in Oshawa.
Here are the 10 ridings to watch in Toronto and the GTA that will give you the best sense of how the major parties are doing on election night.
The Liberals have swept every seat in Toronto in every general election since 2015. So when the Conservatives took this longtime Liberal stronghold in the heart of the city in a byelection last June by a little more than 600 votes, it was seen by many as a sign of how deeply Justin Trudeau's popularity had sunk.
The race on Monday is a rematch of the byelection, with Leslie Church, a former top aide to then-minister of finance Chrystia Freeland, trying to take Toronto—St. Paul's back for the Liberals from the Conservative incumbent Don Stewart.
Also on the ballot: Joseph Frasca (PPC), David Gershuny (Marxist-Leninist), Bruce Levy (NDP), Shane Philips (Green), Cynthia Valdron (Canadian Future).
This riding is the canary in the coal mine for the Conservatives' hopes to make gains in the 905. In the last election, it's where the Liberals had their slimmest margin of victory in the entire region, just 1,460 votes or about 3.2 percentage points. If the Conservatives can't flip this seat, it's hard to see how they can pick up other ridings in the 905 that the Liberals took by wider margins.
Liberal incumbent Leah Taylor Roy is seeking re-election. Her Conservative opponent Costas Menegakis served as a one-term MP for Richmond Hill, winning his seat in 2011 when Stephen Harper's party formed a majority government.
Other candidates: Danielle Maniuk (NDP), Tom Muench (Green), Igor Tvorogov (PPC).
This new riding looks to be a litmus test for the fortunes of the Conservatives and Liberals in the 905. When you take the results of the 2021 election from the portions of the old ridings that form its new boundaries, the Liberals' edge over the Conservatives here would have been less than half a percentage point.
To underscore its importance as a battleground, Milton East—Halton Hills South is one of only a handful of ridings nationwide that both Carney and Poilievre visited during the five-week campaign.
Conservative candidate Parm Gill was a one-term MP for a riding in Brampton, then represented Milton in the Ontario legislature and served as a cabinet minister in Doug Ford's provincial government. Liberal candidate Kristina Tesser Derksen is a lawyer and two-term town councillor in Milton. She ran in February's provincial election but lost to the Ontario PC incumbent by about 2,500 votes.
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