There is no stopping the BJP’s agenda in Karnataka Premium

The question is whether Congress will more confidently confront the BJP’s communal agenda

Days after the results of the bypolls to three Assembly seats in Karnataka were announced on November 23, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, the youth president of Janata Dal (Secular) and son of Union Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, said that he lost in the Channapatna constituency by a margin of more than 25,000 votes only because Muslims chose to vote for the Congress.

On November 27, during a rally held by a Sangh Parivar group opposing notices served to farmers for alleged encroachment of Waqf land, Chandrashekhar Swamiji of the Vishva Vokkaliga Mahasamsthana Mutt proposed a law to disenfranchise Muslims for “others to live peacefully”.

The statement, which he retracted later, reflects a larger sentiment being peddled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that the Congress’s victory and its own humiliating loss (in all three seats) is due to “Muslim appeasement” and “Muslim vote consolidation”.

The BJP, which had been mounting corruption allegations against the government, and particularly against Chief Minister Siddaramaiah over the allotment of 14 Mysore Urban Development Authority sites to his wife, picked up the Waqf issue in October with the intent of giving it a communal edge before the bypolls. Even before the 2023 Assembly elections, the party had launched a series of communal campaigns, such as banning the hijab in classrooms and urging Hindus to shun halal meat.

While the Congress won 135 of the 224 seats in 2023, it has gained two more in the bypolls. One of these seats were held by the BJP and the other by the JD(S), which became allies after the 2023 polls. Both the Assembly election results and the bypoll results indicate that the communal agenda has not paid BJP the electoral dividends it had expected, at least in the short term. But the response of its leaders, and the continued Waqf campaign of the BJP (though by two starkly divided camps in the State unit), indicate that Karnataka will see more of the same. The JD(S), which has been tentative on the communal issue so far, appears to be more willing to toe the BJP line now.

The JD(S) has traditionally held considerable sway over the Vokkaligas, but the pattern of voting in the five Zilla Panchayats and one town municipality under Channapatna, according to an analysis by the Kannada news portal eedina.com, suggest that Mr. Nikhil did not get an impressive lead even in places dominated by the community. Clearly, the JD(S) did not lose just Muslim votes but also the votes of Vokkaligas and others for complex reasons. Housing and Minority Welfare Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan made some racist remarks on Mr. Kumaraswamy’s skin colour, which many people in the Congress believe would affect the chances of the party candidate, C.P. Yogeshwar. Yet, Mr. Yogeshwar won.

In the Shiggaon and Sandur constituencies in north Karnataka, the BJP attempted religious polarisation using the Waqf issue, but failed to gain from it. In fact, the Congress had faced flak for “unwisely” choosing a Muslim candidate in Shiggaon to face former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai’s son, Bharath Bommai. It was argued that only a Lingayat candidate, especially from the Panchamasali sect, would ensure Congress’s victory. But Pathan Yasir Ahmed Khan won with a margin of over 13,000 votes.