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The upstart Canadian Future Party launches into byelections — does it have a shot?

The upstart Canadian Future Party launches into byelections — does it have a shot?

CBC
Friday, August 16, 2024 09:49:23 AM UTC

As the Canadian Future Party officially introduced its candidate for the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun byelection on Thursday — a day after the party's formal launch — questions lingered about voters' appetite for a new option on the ballot.

Mark Khoury will run for the party in the Montreal riding, while Zbig Strycharzy was added to the ballot Thursday for the Elmwood-Transcona byelection.

Neither of the candidates' biographies on the Canadian Future Party website mention them having run in any previous election or having any prior political affiliations.

And while interim party leader Dominic Cardy told reporters at the launch in Ottawa on Wednesday that "the polls" show Canadians want an alternative to the Liberals and Conservatives, some of Canada's pollsters tell CBC News it's too early to tell if there's a real desire for a new party.

"I'm not sure if we can really see that there's a lot of appetite for another party. Maybe for different leaders," said Éric Grenier, a poll aggregator with The Writ.

"You could say that there's the space for it, but I don't think there's a slam-dunk case that people are desperate for a new party somewhere in the centre."

In May, the Angus Reid Institute released a study that said the leaders of Canada's main three political parties today are less popular than any of their predecessors over the past 50 years.

"It does speak to an enthusiasm gap, or a likeability gap, that may reflect the fact that some Canadians may be feeling politically orphaned," said institute president Shachi Kurl.

"But measuring the true size of that universe, and then understanding the extent to which those voters — however many of them there are — are wiling to get behind a political party led by a relative unknown, not a national household name, I think it's a very long road."

When asked to compare the Canadian Future Party to previous efforts to create new federal parties (not including new parties born of splits in older parties, such as the Reform Party), Grenier said Canadian Future benefits from having a sitting legislator in Cardy. That advantage should hold for at least a few more months, until New Brunswick holds its provincial election.

But like Kurl, Grenier questions how much traction the party will have without a high-profile federal name at the helm. The People's Party of Canada, Grenier said, benefited in its early days from the popularity of its leader Maxime Bernier, who recently had come close to winning the Conservative Party leadership.

And in 2014, MP Jean-François Fortin left the Bloc Québecois to form Forces et Démocratie, a party which ran 17 candidates in the 2015 election. Fortin himself earned 11 per cent of the vote in the riding where he was the incumbent. The party's other candidates did poorly; apart from Fortin, the candidate who performed best barely managed two per cent of the vote.

The People's Party and Forces et Démocratie have never won a seat in the House of Commons.

"It is rare for a party to go from nothing to having seats. It usually takes a couple cycles, if it ever happens," Grenier said.

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