The Trudeau government confronts another Trump era — in all its unsurprising unpredictability

When three of Justin Trudeau's ministers came to the microphone set up in the lobby of the rustically palatial Château Montebello in western Quebec on Monday afternoon, the mood seemed to be one of relief. There may have even been a vague sense of achievement.

In the waning days of his premiership, Trudeau had gathered his cabinet in Montebello for a day and a half of meetings devoted entirely to the situation in the United States (though two of Trudeau's ministers took advantage of having so many television cameras to announce their support for one of his potential successors).

At noon on Monday, Donald Trump had become the 47th president of the United States. And Trump had previously threatened to quickly apply a 25 per cent tariff on all goods entering the United States from Canada. But on Monday morning the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump's administration would not immediately proceed with an import tax — the president would instead launch a review of trade between the United States and other countries. 

Canadian officials had read the story in the Journal like everyone else and apparently had no reason to believe it wasn't accurate.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly noted that Trump first raised the possibility of a tariff last November in the context of border security. But the Canadian government had quickly responded with a series of actions and, according to Joly, that response was well received by American officials.

"If the administration wants to study the economic and trade relationship between Canada and the United States, we think that's a positive opportunity for us," Joly said.

If that had been the end of the first day of the second Trump presidency, Canadians might have considered it a good day — or at least as good as anyone in Canada could have realistically hoped. 

But four hours after their first appearance in the lobby, Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc were back at the microphone. Less than an hour earlier, while Trump was signing executive orders in the Oval Office, a reporter had asked the new president about the threatened tariff. Trump said he thought it would be applied on Feb. 1.

An official Canadian response was hastily arranged.

"The one thing we've learned is that President Trump, at moments, can be unpredictable," LeBlanc said.

On Tuesday morning, flanked by seven cabinet ministers and Canada's ambassador to Washington, Trudeau tried to offer reassurance.

"We've been here before," he said.

That is true. But it's not obvious that this time will be any easier. And we may be here for a while. 

On the second floor of the lobby, there are framed photographs commemorating the two times this "log cabin resort" has hosted an American president — Ronald Reagan in 1981 for a G7 summit and George W. Bush for a meeting of North American leaders in 2007.