The oilpatch thought it had dodged a bullet, until Trump mentioned tariffs again

Alberta business and oilpatch leaders are returning home from Washington this week after the U.S. presidential inauguration festivities — and gritting their teeth after a roller-coaster of emotions.

They arrived for the ceremony feeling anxious and concerned about the threat of tariffs on Canadian goods. Oil and natural gas are Canada's top export to our southern neighbours.

In the morning hours before Monday's swearing-in ceremony, news reports suggested tariffs were not going to be announced on the first day of Donald Trump's return to office, as he had previously pledged.

Indeed, there was no mention of the tariffs in speeches or in the dozens of executive orders Trump signed later that day.

Oil and gas leaders felt relief, even joy, as Trump proclaimed "Drill baby drill" in comments about needing to keep fuel prices and inflation low. Those from Alberta said they felt encouraged that the president's attitude surely meant he wouldn't then slap tariffs on Canadian oil, which would most likely raise prices at the pump in parts of the U.S.

The sun had already set in Washington, when all the hope and optimism came to a crashing halt. While signing various executive orders at the White House, Trump answered wide-ranging questions from reporters, including about tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Yes, the 25 per cent tariffs are coming, responded Trump: "I think we'll do it Feb. 1."

All of this happened in a single day and could be a microcosm of what the next few years could be like for the Canadian oilpatch as the sector buckles up for a wild ride with Trump back in charge. 

The tariff threat was never really off the table, just delayed.

"It's a bit of a reality check for sure. But, anyone who had this notion that it was gone was living in a world of magical thinking," Deborah Yedlin, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, told CBC News in Washington, a few blocks from the White House.

"I'm not sure how much thought has been put into this date or deadline. Having said that, whether it's Feb. 1 or March 1, no tariff is good," she said.

Any good feelings after the inauguration speeches were wiped out quickly by Trump's remark, said Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta.

"We felt we had dodged a bullet and I was saying we dodged a bullet for now. We knew something was going to be coming," said Legge.

"What we didn't want to happen is to go back to sleep and be complacent. And so a few hours later we were awoken again [by Trump's comments] and realized that we've got some work to do," he said.