The NDP-Liberal deal is no more — here's what could happen next

So the answer to the question of how much longer the Liberal-NDP deal would last turned out to be "not much." 

"Today, I notified the prime minister that I have ripped up the supply-and-confidence agreement," NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced in a pre-recorded video posted online Wednesday afternoon.

The deal signed by the Liberals and New Democrats in March 2022 promised that there would be "no surprises" between the two parties. When it came time to end the deal, the government got little advance warning — Singh emailed the prime minister about an hour before the NDP leader's message became public.

"I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the last years, rather than focusing on politics," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau later told a news conference in Newfoundland, where he was announcing the first federal-provincial deal to support school nutrition programs.

Officially, the historic deal between the Liberals and NDP was supposed to last until June 2025. But it may have been nearing the end of its natural life expectancy. 

A similar deal signed between the NDP and Greens in British Columbia in 2017 lasted a little over three years. A deal between the Ontario Liberals and NDP signed in 1985 was in place for two years. This agreement lasted roughly two and a half years.

It might be simply too hard to sustain a parliamentary accord much longer than that in Canada's current political environment. And Singh's announcement shouldn't come as a complete surprise.

In announcing his party's withdrawal, Singh actually said little about the agreement itself and offered no real explanation for his decision to walk away now. In his letter to the prime minister, Singh said New Democrats are "frustrated" with the government's "slow and reluctant approach" but did not point to any specific demands that had gone unmet.  

In lieu of any single deal-breaker, it's easier to speculate about the possible political and tactical considerations.

Politically, New Democrats likely need to put some distance between themselves and the Liberals. As long as the deal remained in place, the NDP was directly tied to an unpopular government, a fact that Conservatives — with eyes on several seats currently held by the NDP — were only too happy to point out.

And while new policies and programs have been implemented as a result of the agreement, the New Democrats do not seem to be reaping any immediate rewards in terms of public support — election projections currently have them winning fewer seats than they won in 2021.

Much of what the Liberals and NDP initially put in writing is at least now in the process of being completed. Tactically, the NDP might also now hope to make new demands and seize new gains by reverting to a situation where the government has to negotiate on a case-by-case basis — or to at least force the government to say no to specific things. In his letter to the prime minister, Singh said the NDP would "approach every vote on its own merit" and "push for additional measures to help Canadians."

Singh's video on Wednesday conspicuously resembled a campaign launch and it's fair to say the chances of an early election have increased in the last 24 hours. But the demise of the Liberal-NDP deal does not necessarily mean this Parliament is facing imminent dissolution.

In effect, the House of Commons will merely return to the normal state of affairs where no one party has a majority of seats — what Bob Rae once called the "day-to-day blackmail bullshit" of a minority Parliament.