The Liberals' defence policy hits a fiscal wall

There was a revelatory moment on the weekend as Defence Minister Bill Blair attempted to bridge the gap between rhetoric and reality in the Liberal government's spending plans for his department and the Canadian military.

Asked about an anticipated (and long overdue) update to the country's defence policy (supposedly made urgent two years ago by Russia's full-on invasion of Ukraine), Blair acknowledged that the reset is now being viewed through a fiscal lens.

"We said we're going to bring forward a new defence policy update. We've been working through that," Blair told CBC's Rosemary Barton Live on Sunday.

"The current fiscal environment that the country faces itself does require (that) that defence policy update ... recognize (the) fiscal challenges. And so it'll be part of ... our future budget processes."

It's an important statement, in light of today's federal fiscal update. It also brings up a question: has the Trudeau government — which billed itself initially as an "evidence-based" government — viewed its existing defence policy through the lens of affordability?

For several weeks now, Blair has been called upon to defend a $1 billion annual reduction in planned defence spending during a time of geopolitical turmoil — part of the federal government's overall spending reduction plan.

After it initially denied it was cutting defence spending, the government's messaging shifted to focus on fiscal prudence and accountability to taxpayers squeezed by the high cost of living.

The release last week of federal budget estimates and supplementary appropriations effectively put a spike in the claim that the defence spending reductions don't amount to a cut. It also raised questions about whether the goals of the original defence policy are even being met.

In 2017, the Liberal government estimated it would spend $29.8 billion at National Defence in the current budget year.

The supplementary budget estimates, meanwhile, record a total appropriation of $28.9 billion for defence in the current fiscal year — $500 million of which is destined not for the Canadian Armed Forces but for the Ukrainian military.

When you add up the difference, you find the "almost $1 billion" cut that the country's top military commander warned about — or the "$900 million and change" the deputy defence minister described.

And yet, at the Halifax International Security Forum over the weekend, Blair struck a decidedly hawkish tone in front of a hawkish audience.

"Although we are already investing in major new military capabilities in all domains, again, I will reiterate additional investments are needed and they will occur," he said Friday during his opening remarks. "We know that we need resources to put behind our aspirations."

Later, during a round of media interviews, the minister was a bit more specific.