The Liberal-NDP deal is dead — but that doesn't necessarily mean a fall election

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's decision to pull his party out of the confidence-and-supply agreement with the governing Liberals injects a lot of uncertainty into Canadian politics — and it could lead to a federal election earlier than planned.

The Liberal government is on shakier ground now that it can't rely on the NDP to prop it up on confidence votes in a Parliament where Team Trudeau holds a minority of the seats.

But it doesn't mean the government will soon fall on a confidence vote — a vote that determines whether the government has the support of the House of Commons.

It could still engage in some horse-trading with the NDP or one of the other opposition parties to cobble together enough votes to get its legislation through Parliament and stave off an election. An opposition party could support the government's agenda piecemeal, and not through a formal agreement like the one that was ripped up today.

Not yet — but one could come sooner than planned.

After Singh's decision to blow up the agreement that's kept the Liberals on solid footing for the last two years-plus, the government is undoubtedly in a much more precarious position.

Under the confidence-and-supply agreement, the Liberals essentially could govern as if they had a majority government.

That agreement was supposed to be in place until June 2025, meaning an election wasn't expected until next summer at the earliest.

Now, the Liberal government's future is on a knife's edge — it could be brought down at any time through a non-confidence vote when Parliament returns later this month.

While Singh is terminating the agreement with the Liberals — or SACA, as it's known in parliamentary circles — it doesn't necessarily mean the party is ready for an election campaign. That's a costly endeavour for a party that has pulled in a lot less money through fundraising than the two major parties.

Canada's fixed-date election law dictates that a vote will happen in October 2025 — but that date is moot if a majority of MPs turn on the Liberals or if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau goes to the Governor General to request an early election.

Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University, said the Liberal government could stay in power until it tables its next budget in the spring.

"If I'm a betting person — and I may regret ever saying this — I suspect we'll see a budget election," Turnbull said, suggesting Canadians could head to the polls sometime after that document is tabled in March or April.

An election in mid-2025 would give the NDP enough time to distance itself from its partnership with the unpopular Liberal government and raise the money and resources to mount an effective election campaign focused on keeping the Conservatives out of power, Turnbull said.