The car theft debate is a battle over slogans and solutions

Pierre Poilievre enjoys a punchy phrase, so it's not surprising that a large part of his response to the rise in car thefts rests on the words "jail, not bail." According to the Conservative leader, those three words are key to eliminating the "crime and chaos" that has been unleashed.

Lacking their own snappy lines, the Liberals have taken to trying to use Poilievre's lines against him — arguing, essentially, that slogans are all he has and that the problems of today require much more than a three-word answer. 

"We're convening this summit because Canadians need serious action," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the opening of Thursday's meeting of federal, provincial and municipal officials, along with representatives of the insurance and automotive industries. "A catchy slogan won't stop auto theft. A two-minute YouTube video won't disrupt organized crime."

The summit was, if nothing else, a chance for the Liberals to be seen taking the issue seriously. But if they want to beat back Poilievre's slogans, they need to demonstrate that "serious action." 

To that end, Thursday's event suggested how much might go into fully responding to the problem — including amendments to the Criminal Code.

There's bipartisan consensus on the need for urgency, at least; the Liberals and Conservatives have been competing over the past month to see who can appear more on top of the issue.

The Conservative leader claims the problem can be traced to the change of government in 2015. 

"Since [Trudeau's] government was elected in 2015, there's been a 34 per cent nationwide increase in car theft," Poilievre said this week.

The increase is indisputable. But Poilievre's math doesn't seem to account for population growth — and his phrasing hides how much the increase is a recent phenomenon.

The rate of car theft began to decline in 2004 and hit a low point in 2013, falling from 550.6 to 206.7. It was more or less flat for eight years after that. In 2015, the rate of motor vehicle theft was 220.7 incidents per 100,000 people. In 2021, it was 218.2.

The numbers jumped in 2022 — to 271.4. For 2023, the numbers are likely to be higher still.

At least part of the increase in car theft might be linked to the supply chain problems triggered by the pandemic. Bryan Gast, vice-president of investigative services with the Equite Association, told CBC's Power & Politics this week that organized crime rushed in to take advantage of a shortage of vehicles available for purchase.

Oddly enough, that spike in theft coincided with a sudden jump in the political attention paid to it. The phrase "car theft" appears in the parliamentary record an average of 1.6 times per year between 2015 and 2022. In 2023, there were 10 references. In 2024, the phrase has been spoken 66 times already.

The Conservatives are very comfortable fighting over who's tougher on crime; Poilievre's response to the car theft problem recalls Stephen Harper's focus on law and order. A Poilievre government would introduce a new mandatory minimum car theft penalty for a third offence, make people convicted of car theft by way of indictment ineligible for house arrest and, as his refrain goes, make sure people arrested for car theft get "jail, not bail."