Soviet-era spacecraft meant to land on Venus set to plunge to earth half-century after failed launch

Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere in early May, posing minimal risk of impact.

A Soviet-era spacecraft meant to land on Venus in the 1970s is expected to soon plunge uncontrolled back to Earth, possibly within the first two weeks of May.

It’s too early to know where the half-ton mass of metal might come down or how much of it will survive reentry, according to space debris-tracking experts.

Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek predicts the failed spacecraft will reenter around May 10. He estimates it will come crashing in at 150 mph (242 kph), if it remains intact.

“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Mr. Langbroek said in an email. The object is relatively small and, even if it doesn’t break apart, “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime,” he said.

The chance of the spacecraft actually hitting someone or something is small, he added. “But it cannot be completely excluded.”

The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never made it out of Earth orbit because of a rocket malfunction. Most of it came tumbling down within a decade. But Mr. Langbroek and others believe the landing capsule itself — a spherical object about 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter — has been circling the world in a highly elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually dropping in altitude.

It’s quite possible that the 1,000-pound-plus (nearly 500-kg) spacecraft will survive reentry. It was built to withstand a descent through the carbon dioxide-thick atmosphere of Venus, said Mr. Langbroek of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.