Saudi oil delegation at World Petroleum Congress says we're nowhere near peak fossil fuel

As hundreds of oil and gas executives and government representatives descend on Calgary for the World Petroleum Congress, a delegation from Saudi Arabia is warning of the consequences of ditching oil and preaching the need for a more realistic energy transition and more investment in oil and gas.

The country has the largest delegation at the conference of any country or company, led by Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, who told the crowd of delegates that the sector can't solely focus on climate change.

"If we really want to be faithful to the idea that we will be transitioning, we have to also make sure that transitioning happens whereby you end up attending to energy security, ensuring that energy is still affordable, and does not act as an impediment to economic prosperity and growth," he said while onstage.

 "And if you don't do all of the above, I'm sorry, but I don't think you could attend to climate change issues."

The pitch by the Saudi delegation runs somewhat counter to the net-zero theme of this year's World Petroleum Congress, though it's shared by many in attendance. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith made similar comments this week, along with the head of ExxonMobil, one of the world's largest publicly traded international oil and gas companies.

But outside the walls of the World Petroleum Congress there's pushback to this narrative. A recent, bombshell op-ed from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests peak demand for fossil fuels will happen within the next decade and that, while timelines vary, oil, gas and coal are all on their way out.

The two perspectives exemplify the fundamental debate that surrounds the oil and gas industry, as some governments and environmental groups pressure companies to move faster on climate change — especially given their record profits — while executives and some politicians caution the road to net-zero is a slow, windy path without a clear road map.

Just days before the World Petroleum Congress kicked off, the IEA warned how the world's appetite for oil and other fossil fuels may peak before the end of this decade.

It's the first time the global energy watchdog has predicted peak fossil fuels will arrive so soon.

Fatih Birol, the IEA's head, wrote in the Financial Times last week that the projections would show that "the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point."

"Peaks for the three fossil fuels are a welcome sight, showing that the shift to cleaner and more secure energy systems is speeding up and that efforts to avoid the worst effects of climate change are making headway," he wrote.

Still, Birol warned the IEA's forecast downturn is nowhere near steep enough to put the world on a path to limiting temperature rises to 1.5 C above pre-industrialized levels, which is considered important to avoiding a climate catastrophe.

But speaking to conference delegates Monday, the president and CEO of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil and gas company pushed back against the idea that the world is anywhere close to peak fossil fuel demand. 

"The reality on the ground is that despite concerted effort to move to alternatives, global coal consumption is at record levels … with demand still robust," said Amin Nasser, the company's president and CEO, while accepting an industry leadership award at the conference.