Sask. declines to limit gatherings despite warning from chief medical health officer

Saskatchewan's chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab sounded the proverbial Omicron alarm on Thursday afternoon, telling media that people in the province should not see anyone outside their household indoors unless it was to work or attend school.

"We need to do everything to blunt the wave. This is not the time for any gatherings at all. You should do what is essential, which means going to work and going to school. But otherwise not having any contact with anyone outside your household," Shahab said Thursday.

Shahab's recommendation has not manifested in the form of any new provincial health orders. He said Thursday that any decisions are up to the government.

The province's orders do not limit gatherings in public or private, despite modelling released by Shahab on Dec. 21 that suggested policies reducing population mixing could limit the spread of the more transmissible variant.

That modelling has proven to be an underestimate. It projected daily cases would surpass 300 by Jan. 20 without measures. On Thursday, cases confirmed through PCR testing were 913 in the province, more than triple what the model had predicted as a high-end total.

These came numbers do not include people who tested positing on a self-administered rapid test but did not go in to confirm the result with a PCR test. The province recently recommended that asymptomatic people who have a positive rapid test stay home, assume they have COVID-19 and self-isolate, rather than getting a PCR test to confirm it.

The Dec. 21 modelling was based on Omicron spread having a doubling rate of 5.2 days. Ontario's science table released data more than a week before Saskatchewan's model which suggested Omicron's doubling time was just three days.

On Dec. 23, Premier Scott Moe posted a video to social media suggesting the government could implement gathering limits in days ahead.

If "serious cases and hospitalizations remain low and manageable," the government wouldn't impose measures that would "shut down activities, restrict businesses and take away your personal freedoms," he said.

During a Dec. 30 news conference, he ruled the possibility of gathering limits out.

"We do need to learn how to live with COVID," Moe said. "We can't lock down our communities and our community events and our businesses forever."

Moe and Shahab have consistently said they are watching other jurisdictions to see how Omicron impacts health care. The difficulty with comparing other provinces to Saskatchewan is that every other province has some form of restrictions on public or private gatherings.

For example, Alberta has limited private gathering sizes. Quebec has a 9 p.m. curfew and limited private indoor gatherings to six people. Ontario has shut down indoor dining and gyms and moved schools online until Jan. 17. 

Moe said the province will be watching hospitalizations and ICU admissions. He has said in the past that his government makes decisions to protect health-care capacity.