Rogue wave hits Canadian lobster industry as U.S. moves to increase minimum legal size

An unexpected decision to increase the minimum legal size of lobster in the United States has appeared like a rogue wave on the Canadian industry, threatening to curtail live exports south of the border.

With total Canadian live shipments worth $545 million in 2022, the potential trade implications was the first item on the agenda in the annual U.S.-Canada lobster town meeting being held in Moncton, N.B., this week.

"Effectively we will not be able to ship a certain size lobster there that we always have. So their action will create an action that we have to respond to in Canada," said Geoff Irvine, executive director of the Lobster Council of Canada.

The U.S. move to increase the minimum legal size of a lobster carapace, or outer shell, from 82 millimetres to 84 millimetres in January 2025 — and to 86 millimetres in 2027 — would create a mismatch in the closely integrated two-way trading between the countries.

The Canadian minimum is 82 millimetres in most of Atlantic Canada and the initial difference would be about the thickness of a loonie coin.

"With the size distribution of lobsters that are landed, that proportion of stock that could fall within that relatively small four-millimetre range could be as much as 10 to 30 per cent of the actual landings in a given year," said Adam Cook, a scientist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO).

The U.S. increase was automatically triggered by surveys in the Gulf of Maine, including ones showing a continued decline in the abundance of young lobster.

The threshold only came into effect in May 2023 and was unexpectedly tripped in October.

"We knew we were approaching the number, but we had no anticipation that we were going to trigger it when we approved it in May," says Dan McKiernan, vice-chair of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, which made the decision.

He says giving lobster more time to mature and reproduce is behind the measure.

"So a little bit of gauge increase gives you a lot of egg production and that's our insurance against future declines we hope," he said.

The commission delayed implementation until next January for the industry to address trade repercussions and so manufacturers can produce new gauges needed on board fishing boats.

Canadian and Americans attending the meeting agree the next step will be measures that disallow entry of Canadian live lobster below the U.S. new minimum. However, bonded trucks carrying "undersized" Canadian lobster would be allowed across the border for flights from U.S. airports to Asia, McKiernan said.

It was also clear the Americans are unlikely to retreat, leaving Canada with a decision: increase the minimum to meet the U.S. standard or not.