Real estate market on P.E.I. shows only slight signs of cooling

There are signs P.E.I.'s red-hot real estate market could be starting to cool — but that doesn't mean it's going to be any easier to break into the Island's competitive real estate market.

Nationally, the market showed signs of cooling in March as both the number of homes sold and the average selling price declined compared to the previous month. But that's not the case on P.E.I. 

"The flattening hasn't necessarily hit us yet here," said James Marjerrison, the newly minted president of the P.E.I. Real Estate Association. 

"But I would not be surprised, with rising interest rates and record highs, that there would be a bit of a flattening period — I just haven't seen that just yet." 

The latest stats show prices continue to rise, for now. According to the P.E.I. Real Estate Association, of the 194 homes or units that sold on P.E.I. in April, the average price was a record $414,742, up more than 20 per cent from April 2021.

Despite those record prices, there were fewer homes sold in April on P.E.I. — almost 23 per cent fewer compared to last April's all-time record sales. During the first four months of 2022, there were nine per cent fewer home sales than the same period last year. 

That's because, in part, there were fewer homes available to sell — what agents call low inventory. The number of new listings on the Island in April, at 265, was down more than 17 per cent from April 2021.

None of which is good news for buyers hoping the market cools so they can buy their first home or move up to a larger home.

"If housing prices were to fall a bit or if there was a bit of a correction, you might think that it could make it more affordable for people getting into the market," said Marjerrison.

"But if interest rates continue to rise, that could put more pressure on affordability in terms of the monthly payment and the stress test, so that could level it off." 

Buyers might need to come up with a bigger down payment to keep their monthly mortgage commitments more manageable considering the higher interest rates, he explained. 

"It's a bit of a shell game when you're juggling interest rates and house prices." 

Shaun Cathcart, a senior economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association who spoke to CBC P.E.I. from his home in Ottawa, said prices are rising more slowly than they were a year ago, which represents "a very slow topping out." 

"Our forecast is for things to sort of flatten out and to some extent ... they kind of have been," he said.