Ready or not, a new debate about the future of health care has begun

In a year-end interview with the CBC's Rosemary Barton last month, the prime minister restated his view that a "long-term conversation about increasing funding to health care" should happen "when the pandemic's over."

A few weeks later, with the Omicron variant spreading fast, it's even harder to know when that conversation should start.

But an unofficial debate about health care in Canada is already taking shape — between demands for more public funding on one side and calls for a "greater role for private health care delivery" on the other.

With the highly contagious Omicron variant and a sizeable population of unvaccinated Canadians threatening to swamp hospitals, health care capacity is the concern of the moment.

Canada is hardly unique in that respect. Thousands of surgeries have been cancelled in the United Kingdom since the pandemic began. But the strain on the Canadian system was also foreseeable. In fact, Frances Woolley, an economist at Carleton University, predicted that COVID-19 would expose the fragility of the system back in March 2020.

As Woolley wrote, Canada has the second-lowest number of acute care beds per capita among nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and nearly all of those beds tend to be filled.

While the total number of acute care beds has declined broadly across advanced economies over the last 50 years as a result of changes in technology and care, the especially low number in Canada can be traced to "a failure of funding levels to keep up with population growth," Woolley argued.

Danyaal Raza, a family physician in Toronto and a former chair of Canadian Doctors for Medicare, made a similar case last fall. He said that when it comes to health care costs, Canadian governments are picking up a smaller share of the bill than governments in many of our peer countries.

That's due in part to the fact that Canada's universal system doesn't include things like pharmacare and mental health. Raza argued it's also due to a lack of public investment.

While Trudeau has declined to engage with provincial demands for a substantial increase in the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) — the primary mechanism through which the federal government funds health services at the provincial level — the Liberals have proposed to deal with specific services.

Building on previous agreements to fund mental health services, the Liberals promised last fall to create a dedicated Canada Mental Health Transfer with an "initial investment" of $4.5 billion over five years. The Liberal platform also promised $9 billion to improve long-term care and $3.2 billion to help provinces and territories hire new doctors and nurses.

Lingering somewhere in the background is an outstanding federal commitment to expanding pharmacare. Ottawa signed its first (and so far only) agreement to improve drug coverage with Prince Edward Island last August.

But the provinces have been demanding much more than that — an immediate increase of up to $28 billion in the CHT, the dedicated fund for hospitals and doctors that gives provincial governments money they can spend as they see fit.

In that year-end interview, Trudeau contended that the support the federal government has provided to the provinces during the pandemic — which includes a $4-billion "top-up" to the CHT this year — proved that "yes, the federal government is absolutely willing to step up on more health care. How much and what it looks like and what is needed, well, those are really important conversations to have."