Putin wanted less NATO on his border. Finland and maybe Sweden will give him more

If you talk to anyone in Western diplomatic circles — especially in the security, intelligence and defence sectors — what is about to unfold over the next few weeks in Scandinavia counts among Russia's worst nightmares.

The inclusion of Finland and possibly Sweden in NATO, politically and militarily the source of all that is evil to Moscow, will stretch the alliance firmly from the Arctic Ocean all the way to the Black Sea, pressed right up against the border.

It is the kind of scenario that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to avoid. 

Back before he unleashed the horror of a full invasion of his most immediate neighbour, Putin sought to push back against NATO expansion, demanding Ukraine never be allowed to join the Western military alliance. Last December, he went further and insisted the North Atlantic allies retreat from eastern Europe back to their pre-expansion 1997 lines.

To make his point, Putin rattled the nuclear sabre.

It is safe to say, in doing so and with everything that happened, he freaked out his other non-aligned neighbours; northern nations that have for decades prided themselves on, and built some of their political identities around, their studied neutrality.

"The accession of Finland would strengthen the security and stability of the Baltic Sea region and north of Europe," said Pekka Haavisto, Finland's foreign minister, on Thursday. "Finland is a regional security provider and it would further strengthen NATO as a future ally."

The country is expected to apply for membership next week, setting off a security race against time. A joint statement from Finland's president and prime minister said "Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay."

Although Finland has kept its options open for years over the possibility of joining NATO, the invasion of Ukraine set off a tectonic shift in public opinion. That was the game changer. 

"The 24th of February — that was the changing moment. That was the game changer," said Terhi Suominen, the secretary general at the Atlantic Council of Finland.

Support for joining the alliance traditionally sat around 20 per cent of the population, the events of last winter acted like a lightning bolt.

"And then dramatically, the support of NATO membership grew, and actually it is tripled right now. So, we have 76 per cent in favour of NATO membership," she said.

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Suominen said joining the alliance is an issue where both the left and right on the political spectrum agree.