Provinces' capacity to respond to foreign interference questioned ahead of busy election season

As a longtime former public servant, Michael Wernick is listening when the Parti Québécois promises a third referendum on independence should it secure power in the next election. 

He thinks Russia is, too. 

"It presents an opportunity to disrupt and maybe even break up an important G7 country, so I'm sure they're going to have a try," said the former clerk of the Privy Council.

"It's 32 years since the last one. It would now be fought on social media. It would be subject to cyber attacks. It would be subject to disinformation campaigns. It would look a lot more like the Brexit referendum of 2016 in Britain — only worse."

While the threat of foreign interference in Canadian federal politics has garnered international headlines and triggered an ongoing public inquiry,  it's not the only target.

Canada's spy agency has repeatedly warned about foreign interference happening at the provincial level. The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians has also flagged provincial meddling as a concern, naming China and Pakistan as aggressors. 

But the ability of the provinces and territories to respond to growing threats posed by foreign actors and domestic players is concerning, said Wernick, now the Jarislowsky Chair in Public Sector Management at the University of Ottawa.

"The electoral commissions and officers are often very, very small organizations that rev up every four years, and they wouldn't have the ongoing capacity to deal with the new threats of cyber security and disinformation campaigns," he said.

"I think with most threats, people are a little bit innocent and complacent until something happens."

That capacity will be in the spotlight later this fall when voters in three provinces head to the polls: British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.

Saskatchewan's Chief Electoral Officer Michael Boda said with the growth of deep fakes and the speed with which disinformation can spread, one of his most important jobs this fall is maintaining trust in the electoral system.

"We need to remain vigilant," he said in a recent interview.

Boda has been advocating for stronger powers to handle disinformation, but without much luck.

"From a legislative standpoint in Saskatchewan, we have very limited authority," he said.