Prediction markets scrutinised over Iran bets

Wagers were taken on the timing of bombing and removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power. Read more at straitstimes.com.

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SINGAPORE - Betting payouts following US attacks on Iran have thrown new scrutiny on prediction markets, which took wagers on the timing of bombing and removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power.

Mr Khamenei was killed in Israeli strikes over the weekend.

Odds moved sharply as rumours of his death circulated and analysts drew attention to a wave of wagers placed on his ouster both right before the attacks, as well as in January, while critics questioned the legality of the markets.

A total US$529 million (S$668.8 million) was laid on a series of Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of attacks – returning payouts to those who bet on Feb 28 as the date of the first strikes – and US$150 million across two now-disputed contracts on the removal of Khamenei as supreme leader.

Analytics firm Bubblemaps said on X that six accounts made a US$1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets funded in the hours before the Feb 28 raids.