Poilievre tries to capitalize on NDP weakness but Liberal surge could complicate things

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre spent much of the first week of this election campaign targeting NDP-held ridings that could be up for grabs now that polls suggest New Democrat support is in free fall — but the recent Liberal surge has upended those plans.

The big political story of the campaign so far is the remarkable resurgence of the Liberal Party — which only weeks ago was thought left for dead — as some voters sour on Poilievre after he led in the polls by huge margins for the better part of two years.

It's a phenomenon largely driven by U.S. President Donald Trump and his economic assault on Canada with his devastating tariffs.

There's a perception by some voters that the Conservative leader won't be strong enough in the face of the American threats, pollsters say, and that's given Mark Carney and the Liberals a boost.

But Poilievre is conceding nothing so early on in this election. He's also making a play for seats held by a competitor who's arguably doing worse than he is.

Poilievre is zeroing in on seats held by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's party in areas where there's a history of "orange-blue" swings.

It's a relatively rare political phenomenon in large swaths of the country, but one that's quite common in areas where the federal Liberal brand is weaker — most notably on B.C.'s Vancouver Island, where six of the seven seats are held by New Democrats.

Speaking to reporters at a sawmill on the island during a campaign stop in Nanaimo Friday, Poilievre said the NDP hitched its wagon to the governing Liberals in the last Parliament and a vote for them this time is a vote for another decade of Liberal "darkness."

"The NDP has failed these communities. They sold out residents when they signed onto a costly coalition with the Liberals. They voted for carbon taxes, being soft on crime, releasing criminals into the streets and easy drug policies that are killing people," he said.

"The good news is that British Columbians can choose another way," he said.

Over the past 80-plus years — and also over the course of numerous boundary changes — the NDP has traded the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding back and forth with the Conservative Party and its past iterations.

It's an area that's largely shunned the Liberals for most of its existence, with an MP from that party representing residents here for just 12 of the last 121 years, according to parliamentary records.

The last time Nanaimo voters sent a Liberal to the House of Commons was 1940. The party's candidate placed a distant fourth in the 2021 federal election.

But there are some signs things could be different this time in NDP icon Tommy Douglas's old riding.