OPEC+ mulls oil production increase in shadow of war

OPEC+ considers increasing oil production amid rising prices and geopolitical tensions sparked by ongoing Middle East conflicts.

As a fresh Middle East conflict risks sending oil prices sharply higher, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance are widely expected to announce an output increase Sunday (March 1, 2026), analysts say.

The virtual meeting by the eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations (OPEC+) known as the "Voluntary Eight" (V8) comes a day after the U.S. and Israel launched an ongoing wave of strikes on Iran.

Last year, the V8 group -- comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- boosted production by around 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in total before announcing a three-month pause in output hikes.

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But now the picture has changed dramatically.

Even before the conflict erupted on Saturday (February 28, 2026), the market had already priced in a growing geopolitical risk premium over months of U.S. military build-up in the region.