On the cusp of a demographic transition

On declining fertility levels, an update on HMPV, sudden cardiac death among athletes and more

(On declining fertility levels, an update on HMPV, sudden cardiac death among athletes and more)

It’s true that we haven’t really prepared for demographic transition.s As the country moves ahead and progresses in health care, besides simultaneously working on stabilising fertility at replacement level, there are clear signs of a demographic transition in some parts of the country. These transitions come with issues that we will now have to wrestle with anew. Obsessed as we have been with our burgeoning population levels, and the need to offer health care services to all, we have not quite accounted for what happens when we cross the bridge. 

In Kerala, where the bridge has been crossed effectively a while ago, the first interesting fall out of this demographic transition is manifesting. 

C. Maya brings to our attention a fascinating development: In Kerala, declining fertility levels are pushing up maternal mortality rate. Kerala’s maternal mortality ratio, currently the lowest in the country at 19 per one lakh live births, is now climbing steadily, much to the consternation of the health department. And the reasons for the increase may be beyond the control of officials. 

Except during 2020-21, when Kerala lost many mothers to COVID-19, the State has consistently maintained a firm grip over maternal mortality. Ironically, the State’s MMR is now spiking not because more mothers are dying in Kerala, but because there are fewer child births than ever in the State.

The State, which used to have an average of 5-5.5 lakh live births annually, has now hit an all-time low of 3,93,231 births, according to latest data of the State’s Department of Economics and Statistics. The Health Department puts live births in the State between 3.4 lakh and 3.9 lakh currently. And it is this dip in the denominator that is pushing the State’s MMR up and not necessarily an actual spike in maternal deaths. Hit on the link for more, we also promise to bring you updates if any. 

Let’s get this out of the way. The unnatural buzz around HMPV may have just quieted down, at least for the time being. We would like to think we have a role to play in this, in busting myths, both with reporting and with a webinar organised for readers.