New COVID-19 modelling projects continued downward trend for Alberta
CBC
New modelling projects daily COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions in Alberta will continue to decline if the province stays the course.
University of Victoria physics professor and member of British Columbia's independent COVID-19 modelling group Dean Karlen says it's been a rapid drop — around three or four per cent per day, faster than in BC.
"Frankly, [I'm] really surprised how fast that turned around," he said. "That's remarkable."
The analysis — the 11th such release from the group — shows infections were likely at their worst through the peak of the fourth wave based on hospitalization numbers that nearly collapsed Alberta's health-care system.
The turnaround date came in mid-September when the province implemented sweeping new public health measures, including a proof-of-vaccination program.
"In our previous report three weeks ago, we just saw that turnaround and now it's absolutely clear," Karlen said.
"Provided that these measures remain in force and that people remain vigilant, then we would expect that a decline to continue so that hospital systems can recover from that surge."
The methodology to track infection rates also changed in that last release. Karlen said case counts in Alberta were no longer a reliable indicator as there was less testing and contact tracing than in previous waves.
The modelling is now based on hospitalizations, although Karlen said that could make it more difficult to monitor what is happening in the weeks to come.
"We may be in a difficult time to understand the data from Alberta in three or four weeks from now when hospital admissions, hopefully, are much lower even than they are today."
Alberta Health Services has added staff for contract tracing in recent weeks after initially shrinking the service this summer.
Craig Jenne, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Calgary and member of the Snyder Institute for Chronic Diseases, said it's difficult to predict if Alberta will see another COVID-19 spike.
He said the B.C. modelling group has been accurate in the past but it is still based on a snapshot in time.
"The representing trends are based on rates and numbers we see today but with any infectious disease that can change and it can change in a number of ways," Jenne said.
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