New cases slowly declining in B.C. as pandemic 'stabilizes,' modelling group finds
CBC
An independent modelling group says it believes the pandemic is "largely stable" in B.C., with cases declining and expected to continue to do so in the coming weeks.
In a report published Wednesday, the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group said case rates are declining at a rate of about two per cent each day. It said the mask mandate and regional public health restrictions, like those introduced in northern parts of the province, helped stabilize cases.
"What we're seeing across all health authorities is a really good signal the curve is bending down," said Sally Otto, a co-author of the report and evolutionary biology professor at the University of British Columbia (UBC).
The modelling group, which includes experts from UBC, Simon Fraser University and the University of Victoria, expects cases in the province to decline as the recently vaccinated build immunity over the next three weeks. The forecast includes the stricken Northern Health Authority region, which has seen its hospitals become overloaded in recent weeks.
Researchers also found the surge in cases among children under 12 has "largely reversed" since September.
"We're still seeing infections in kids at a higher rate than the rest of the population, but [the rates] are almost equivalent now," Otto said in an interview Wednesday.
"It's very reassuring ... a really good sign."
The modelling warned daily case counts, while stable, are still trending high: the province has averaged 628 new cases every day in October. Vaccination rates have also slowed after spiking with the news and enforcement of B.C.'s vaccine card in September.
The group said B.C. could be at risk for another uptick in cases if the public stops wearing masks, or if another new variant emerges. Experts also said seasonal factors, like people spending more time inside as the weather worsens, could also create a risk.
More vaccinations would reduce that threat, they said. The group found communities with 95 per cent vaccination are four times less likely to have a case than those areas with only 75 per cent vaccination.
The province announced Tuesday every British Columbian will have access to a third dose of vaccine in the coming months.
People who are immunocompromised, those in long-term care and assisted living and rural and remote First Nations communities will be the priority for the third dose program, but all British Columbians should have access by next May.
A plan to start vaccinating children between five and 11 is also expected to begin, pending Health Canada approval.
As of Tuesday, 89 per cent of eligible people have received their first dose of vaccine, while 84.5 per cent have had a second dose.
A holiday event that began in 2020 during the pandemic with three floats on pickup trucks has now become one of Kelowna’s big winter events, drawing thousands to the city’s downtown core.
WARNING: This story details allegations of child abuse.
It’s been hard to keep track of how many legal challenges and active court proceedings the United Conservative government has tried to quash or pre-emptively block in the last six weeks, but let’s try to tally:
Margaret Walker, the emcee of a Waterloo vigil commemorating the victims of the Montreal massacre, doesn't feel enough is being done to reflect on the killings and address gender-based violence.
The P.E.I. Humane Society says it is doing far more fundraising than it used to, and rising expenses — including the cost of animal medications — are a big reason why.
Ottawa is staring down a court-ordered deadline to submit a new plan to reform the on-reserve child welfare system, as a group of First Nations leaders and children’s advocates prepare a competing proposal.
An underpass revitalization project that was meant to pay tribute to the people of Parkdale has instead deteriorated into “a garbage dump,” according to nearby residents.
A young man has been charged with criminal negligence causing bodily harm after a fire at a frat party near Western University that injured five sorority sisters, including two seriously, late Tuesday night.
The massive deal to combine one of Hollywood's oldest studios with a streaming giant hasn't even been approved yet, but it's already riling multiple related industries and politicians concerned about monopolies and media concentration.
Mi'kmaq chiefs and a former Nova Scotia justice minister are criticizing the provincial government for directing police to crack down on illegal cannabis, saying the order undermines relations with Indigenous Peoples.
For years, there has been “glaring inequity” in the way the province has allocated the millions of dollars in its county roads budget, according to Department of Transportation Minister Chuck Chiasson.
Six months after passing a law aimed at making it easier for new grocery stores to open, Manitoba's premier says lower grocery bills could be on the horizon.
Timothy Smith was acting in self-defence when he punched Landon Waddell, and shouldn't be found guilty of manslaughter, his lawyer says.